blunders of the ukraine war .....

the russians blundered the invasion of ukraine.   you would have to work at it to commit as many blunders as the russians did in their initial foray into the ukraine.   the planning was idiotic, the execution of it inept, and such niceties as logistical foresight and strategic considerations almost nonexistent.    from the "40 mile parking lot" to the failure to take kiev, russian ineptness was on display for the world to see.

but, the biggest blunder of all was the russian failure to anticipate the vigor and courage with which the ukraine conducted the defense of its country.  in short, the russians failed grossly to anticipate the valor of the ukraine.

and utterly failed to prepare for war, with an opponent which very quickly rose to the fight.   a major blunder.

the blunder, in my opinion, committed by the ukraine.  this omission on the part of the ukraine is hard to see, because it happened right at the end of the ukraine's brilliant attacks to retake kherson, and the conquest of the russian invaders in and around karkiv.  (blunder is hard to see when mixed with success, and following on its heals.)  and, this was the failure as fall started to turn to winter, being the failure of the ukraine to vigorously attack down the eastern bank of the dnieper/dnipro towards nova kakhovka, while also attacking towards nova kakhovka from the areas liberated in and around kherson.

the ukraine should have executed these attacks no matter the costs, and loss of soldiers.  this was a chance for outright victory, now gone by.   in my opinion, had they secured these areas as 2022 ended, they would have come very close to expelling the russians from the ukraine entirely, and to taking the crimea outright.   in stead, the ukraine went into a rather passive mode, and gave the russians a chance to regroup and solidify their defenses in the southeast of ukraine, and in the donbas.

the ukraine may make up for this in their much anticipated counter attack, and it may not.   we shall see.

but, in my opinion, the ukraine could have completely ejected  russia from ukraine had they, in essence, encircled the russian forces in the kherson region.   alas, for whatever the reason, it was not to be.  maybe it will be yet to come.

slava ukraine!!  kill russians!!   and, now, the object is to gain ground.

john jay @ 05.23.2023

who recovers from their blunders?  prognostication is a difficult science, to be sure.  so, let us jump right to it.--

i do not think that the russians have the wherewithal to recover from their stupidities, partially because they remain endemic, and partially while putin/the russians were at them, they have managed to just about wipe out the ability of the conventional russian forces.   they have decimated the army, they have destroyed the ability of their attack helicopters, and their infantry is in a shambles.

yet, they still fight, though not very effectively at this point.

the ukraine has been content to adopt a "rope-a-dope" defense for some time now, but, i think that they can once again fight an openly aggressive campaign, and take the chances to deal major reversals upon the russian infantry positions.  they retain good personnel, and they have gained the upper hand with western battle tanks, while retaining a much more efficient soldiery mounting their armor.  that can coordinate their efforts, and now they gain the ability to press their advantages of leadership and elan on the attack.

the question is, will they bear the burden of the tasks before them.  will they press the attack, whatever the costs?

we shall see.  but, i favor the ukraine to fight a better fight.

 

Comments

[Drew458]

I really don't know what amount of casualties the Ukrainian forces have suffered. But even if it's 1:20 compared to Russia's, they might be running low on soldiers. And this is how Russia wins, always, eventually. Just throw endless numbers of expendables into the mix, and sooner or later your enemy will run out of ammo. Russia is what, about 100 times bigger than Ukraine? 300?

[jj]

drew:

i think that you are a bit off on the disparity between populations fueling the opposing armies.    russia has a population roughly around 145 million persons, while the ukraine is smaller at about 45 million persons.   the russians, however, are a bit limited in their abilities to raise troops, as the white russian muscovites dont favor the war, and many have left to avoid being drafted.   most of the russian army as members of the various ethnic groups east of the urals, and neither are they that damned enthusiastic about the war.   on the other side of the conflict, 45 millions will feed enough suitably aged men and women to have a respectable number of soldiers, and support for the war seems to be from what i can tell, fair enthusiastic

in support of it.

this has to be somewhat fueled by the fact of the russian invasion, and the brutally stupid way in which the russians have waged war.  it will be a while before ukraine forgets the atrocities in town like bucha, and the bombing of maternity wards and hospitals all over ukraine.

now, the problems for the russians are compounded by the fact that they have so stupidly pursued their aged and hoary doctrine of fighting as to have pretty much destroyed their conventional forces ability to conduct offensive war.  the armor is shot to hell, and they are fielding 60 to 70 year old tanks, and other things.

no, the russians have pretty much pissed away the ability to efficiently wage human wave tactics, and the ukraine has pretty effectively mowed such things down with very effective defensive positioning and maneuver, and it would appear very accurate artillery fire and small arms fire.

nope, my money is on the ukrainians.  they have out fought the russians, and out thought them.  putin has pissed away a lot of the russian ability to fight conventional war.

john