now, in a sense i am not the first to suggest this as a possibility, but i am kind of in front of the crowd by saying that the collapse has occurred/is occurring right now. it is not just that russia is getting beat by the ukraine in "the police action." it is the way in which the russian state and the society it rules is reacting to the way the war against the ukraine is being waged, and to the fact of the loss of the war.
the entire fabric of the state and the society are being rent asunder, and that the state simply is not functioning as a state.
all of this is attributable to putin's "leadership," and to the idiot war that he so doggedly pursues.--
look at the war. it has exposed fundamental fissures in the structure of a modern state. and, it has shown that russian has ceased to function as a modern state, given certain flaws in the way the society and government are structured.
1.)as adolf hitler's history suggests, one man dictatorships simply do not function. they limp along well enough if the leader doesn't make too many fundamental screw ups, but their weaknesses show up when the state is stressed.
2.)the stress that has brought out the frailties in russia's structure is this idiotic war in the ukraine, brought about by putin's desire to reconstitute the old soviet union in its former glory, and to live up to his notion of russian glory.
this was the war aim.
and, russia had no way to check putin in the pursuit of this "vision." there simply was not counterweight to his authority to pursue this stupidity. and, that it was from the get go a monumental stupidity is proven by the results "obtained" in a little less than one year.
-- the desired object of this ambition, the ukraine, lies in ruins. it will be years in being restored to its former state. and, it will never be integrated into russian society. there may or may not have been a ukrainian state and society in actual fact when this war started, but, their is now, and it will be forever inimically hostile towards russia.
so much for conquest.
-- the russian military lies in ruins. the conventional forces of russia, especially its army and infantry, have been shattered. its navy is revealed for being a collection of broken down rust buckets, that simply did not work. the black sea "fleet" was and is a very sad joke for a state having military pretensions on the high seas ..... russians are not, and never have been, competent sailors. in a year of fighting, the russian air forces have not achieved air superiority over the ukraine.
-- the russian military, feared before this war, has been shown to be a colossal "potemkin village." its equipment does not perform as advertised, and mostly it exists in disrepair and rust, unable to by some miracle transcend its shoddy manufacture and nonexistent upkeep.
-- russia does not have, nor as a nation, can it afford the industrial complex necessary to make the weapons and equipment necessary to run its military. the vaunted battle copter, some 100+ before the war started, took nearly 15 years to manufacture, and their exists no industrial complex that can replace its battle losses. likewise, the "13 to 14,000" main battle tanks that russia advertised never existed. period. it has massive numbers of tanks, t-55's, t-64's and early versions of the various t-70 this and that's, but they are rust buckets, equipped with non-existent and non-functional engines, and in need of massive repairs simply to make them run ... and, they are instantly obsolete, with no adequate ammunition stores. and, no, russia cannot build tanks to replace those it has lost in the ukraine.
-- in short, and in sum, russia does not have the military industrial complex to restore its losses on the ukrainian battlefields.
all of the above relate to "issues of the material."
now, i wish to raise and discuss "issues of the spiritual." it is all pretty simple, and obvious, for those who look carefully at things.
-- russia's regime, its state apparatus, putin, simply does not have the loyalty of the people. oh, when placed in harness, they can be whipped and cudgeled to perform, ..... , sort of. they will line up for conscription, those who do not kill the conscription agents or burn down the "recruiting" offices, but they do so only truculently, and with absolutely no zeal to serve the state. or, the idea of russia. and, most certainly, not to do the bidding of the hapless little runt who runs things.
-- the cream of russia's military aged & fit males has fled the country. estimates run from 500,000 to 1,000,000 russian males have fled this war, and from russian military service. they feel no loyalty to putin, and they do not believe that russia is any danger from outside sources, no, the danger lies from within.
-- their is absolutely no fervor or loyalty to russia to be exhibited at this juncture, and this is owed and owned precisely at the feet of vladimir putin. this is putin's war, and the ills of his country and its systemic weaknesses are of his making, and that of his regime.
-- the russian government did not plan for this war. it did not plan to mobilize and increase military production, because it simply did not visualize and foresee the costs of the war, nor the damage it would do to the military, nor the damage it would do to the fabric of its society. and, of course, they did not see the damage that this failure would do to the structure of the government, nor have any inkling how it would show the lack of adherence to it by its citizens, as has been exposed by the war.
-- putin, the elites, the government apparatus has no fans, and no adherents. russia has no friends, save for iran and syria, themselves pariah states.
-- the state off shoots of the dissolution of the soviet union owe no loyalty to putin. they openly scorn him, for the most part.
-- the autonomous regions are restive, and very close to open rebellion.
the russian state is a shell of its former being.--
-- putin makes threats. increasingly, they are ignored, and russia can do nothing about it. the "red lines," worrisome at first, have become something of a joke.
i will tell you how weak russia is. you have to look no further than the damage someone did to the "nord stream" pipelines, the finger of accusation being pointed at biden and the united states at this point. a year ago, great fear would have been felt by any entity accused of doing this. now, no one is very worried about any russian "retribution." biden and the u.s. do not even bother to offer up any denial of damaging the pipeline.
this is how low russia has sunk. so, i don't think that russia is collapsing. i think that it has collapsed. it is like the shakespearean actor who takes a sword thrust in the belly, and then in the chest, and before he hits the ground, he says, "i am dead." yep. he is dead. thud.
russia is dead. some parts of it know this, and are trying to flog the poor dear to revive it. this will do no good, so long as the person who killed russia is still actively sticking swords and knives into it, pursuing his idiot's pursuits. but, sooner than later, putin will kill russia dead as a post. i am convinced everyone will see it as such, by mid-june of 2023.
john jay @ 02.19.2023
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