were i ukraine, this is how i would proceed .....

were i ukraine, this is how i would proceed.--

i would continue to battle russia in bahkmut, and pin the russians there. 

i would deploy some leopards up there, and lure the russians to them, as they wish to destroy the western tanks in the worst way.  i would set up long range kill zones for massed russian tanks with artillery, and once they worked past that, and i would let them, i would hit them with as many small units armed with javelins and the mt-4's (i think that is correct, i am still trying to get them "integrated" into my mind), and kill some more of them.

i would deploy my leopard ii's with the bradley vehicles, carrying generous numbers of troops, again deployed with the javelins and the other euro anti-tank rockets.  and, i would back the leopard's and others off, and let the russians brave the gauntlet of the javelins, until finally, i would let the russian tanks engage the western tanks, and the ukrainian t-72's and t-80's support them along with the bradleys.   it is essential that the western & ukrainian tanks have infantry support, to protect the tanks.   in this, the bradleys should be very useful.

and, bradley's carrying lots of troops with javelines and the like, doing what the ukrainian small units do so well  .....  killing russian infantry, stripping russian tanks of their supporting infantry, and supporting armor, what little of it they have left.

and, i would keep killing russians at prodigious rates there.

that is not where i would seek to kill the russian forces in the ukraine. 

i would do my damage on either side of melitopol.   east and west of melitopol, i would use the great bulk of the leopard's (called "leo's" i think by the military guys), and whatever m-1 abrams tank at my disposal, and i would drive straight south to the black sea on either side of melitopol, bypassing the town and its defenses.   the tank units would have once objective, to drive to the sea.  infantry, supported by whatever assets available, could go back and clean up the towns.

the objectives would be control of roads, rail and distribution hubs, both to kherson oblast and to crimea. 

in short, i would use the leo's and the abram's to break past the russian lines, and encircle the russians in the south west of melitopol.  and cut them off, and starve them.

and, then i would use the break through to create chaos, because the ukrainians have proved excellent in fighting and adjusting on the move, while the russians seem to have a distaste for improvisation and maneuver.

i suppose the economical way of saying it, is that ukraine should creat chaos, and get back to a war of maneuver, such as they displayed in the kharkiv offensive.

and, if i could get the russians off balance, and moving in confusion, i would loose the western tanks upon them, and destroy the russian tanks in open fluid battle.  and, while the russians were trying to figure out which way is east and home, i would take crimea, again with the use of the western main battle tanks.  i think if they are protected and preserved as an asset, they can roam freely in the ukraine  .....   the russians really have nothing to stop them in the open, and when the battle is fluid.

russians don't do chaos very well.   they simply haven't the command structure to thrive in that situation.

my thoughts, for what they are worth.

"drew458," what are your thoughts?  i know you like the melitopol idea, because you voiced it to me months ago.  have i got it basically right?

john jay @ 01.25.2023

p.s.   a futher advantage of attacking around melitopol to get to the black sea, is that it strips the russians of any use of air power.  they simply would fly into ukraine that far, and not with the patriots lurking around in the neighborhood.

Comments

[Paul Albers]

I hope they know that it is best
to have the ground pounders supporting the tanks. Willy and Joe said it best during WW2 "A moving fox hole attracts the eye." as they looked out from under a tank. one of my company commanders said the biggest fear tankers had during the Korean War was seeing that little North
Korean running under their field of fire with a satchel in his hand.

[Drew458]

Have to look at cost/benefit. A layered kill zone takes time to plan and build, A feint with bait is a bit risky, and neither is worth it if they don't have large amounts of well equipped enemies to fight.

I don't know what air assets Russia has left, or if they have something like our Hellfire missile. They could cause problems for your tank thesis. OTOH, if all their whirlybirds are down they maybe they could be enticed into a Fulda Gap killing box. Take that charge south across the flat farmlands, but do it first as a slow feint, building hidden pillboxes as you go, along with 10 times as many dummy boxes. Get down south, kick the Bear in the nutz, dangle those A1s and Leos as bait, and then "run away" when they react. ( could weld up some old tanks to look like the Leos? ) Typical Russ will quickly counterattack past their logistical limits, and that's when you bring the hidden boxes into play. They would have to waste huge amounts of ammo blowing up every haystack and fresh pile of dirt to make certain, while already stretched thin. Snip the supply line off behind them. Even if they ran laterally, they'd be a disorganized mess; easy pickins a few at a time.

It's a good plan, but is it necessary? What level of forces do they have in Crimea or can quickly bring in from the bridge in the east? What level of partisan support? You need boots on the ground to hold land. What can they bring to that dance? If all they have in the whole of Crimea is 3,000 high school boys and some old Moisins, are complex/ingenious plans really needed?

OTOH, is Z's plan to actually win ASAP, or does he see the benefit of endless heavy attrition on the Reds? Russia controls their media, so don't count on "public sentiment turning against Putin"; most may not even know there's a war going on in Ukraine.

[jj]

drew:

the ukrainians have had plenty time to construct the kill zones to retreat over.   and, i think the rooskies are so eager to kill a couple of western tanks that they would do anything to get their hands on one.

to me, anything to get them out of the trenches and moving over ground, is so desirable as to try anything to make it happen.   those trenches are nasty things to try and attack.

and, to get to the sea.   nothing bad can happen from that.  from the ukraines perspective.   it will be interesting to see what the indigenous population of crimea does, should the ukraine put boots there.   interesting, indeed.

and, what is desirable to happen quickly, or best to age a little bit, seems to kind of hinge on how many casualties the ukrainians have suffered this year.  to kill 115,000 russians, would a lot more, has got to have some sort of cost associated with it  ....  but, no one seems to know what the ukraines casualty list actually looks like, in kia and wounded such.   if ukrainian casualties are mounting, they will opt for quick and dirty, rather than prolonged blood letting, if they can manage it.

makes risk analysis pretty tricky, and what one can afford down the line is partially determined by what has come before.  anyone from the ukrainian war ministry given you any insight into that?  they sure havent favored me with that sort of information.   and, it will be interesting to see what the ukraines troop supply looks like this spring.

john