the key to the whole thing lies in the "neighborhoods" around georgia, and in the areas of the --stans. as part of the soviet union, they formed a formidable collection of states, and a population in excess of 300 millions. only the usual russian corruption, economic ineptitude, and suppression of speech and enterprise limited the potential extent of its power.
and odd thing has happened since the break up of the soviet union in 1991. the areas in between the black and caspian seas, the "georgia neighborhood," have kind of blossomed, and their economies and political structures have stablized and gotten stronger. the same holds true in the "--stans neighborhood," in particular in kazakhstan, which has become increasingly inclined to voice an independent voice in its governance, and in the choice of how it wishes to proceed in shaping its own future.
these areas have shown a lot of political independence, and a disinclination, to be at the beck and call of russia, and russian interests. in particular, they have offered putin very little succor and/or "love" in his efforts to subdue the ukraine. they know a predator when they see one, and they have no interest in seeing russia turning toward them.***
if these areas become strong enough to resist russian influence in their governance, particularly in their economies and the control of their natural resources, that pretty much limits russian "growth" into those areas.
in short, russia has looked to the ukraine and belarus as candidates to expand its interests into western europe, and especially with regard to maintaining any lingering hope, or even vestigial interests, of ever having control of poland again. russia has always been a predatory state, looking to steal the wealth and enterprise of its neighbors, and its ability to do this by expanding towards europe lies only through belarus and ukraine.
this is why russia attacked ukraine. it is the path towards poland. plain and simple.
an "assumption." assume if you will that the "--stans neighborhood" is no longer simply ripe picking for political and economic plunder. that's really not a farfetched assumption. a longer bet is the "same assumption" with regard to the "georgia neighborhood."
with those assumptions up and working, it becomes immediately obvious the strategic importance of the belarus with regards of ever being able to exert any influence in eastern european affairs. and, this also explains the russian angst about the expansion of n.a.t.o. ... n.a.t.o. is rapidly foreclosing russian influence into european affairs. now, a clever foreign policy administered by clever diplomats could lend russian considerable say in how europe governs itself, and with whom she maintains friendly ties. but, the "russian genius" and propensity toward the use of the bludgeon and cudgel in conducting its foreign policy seems to have foreclosed that approach in the short run. and, continued stupidity of the part of the russians may foreclose that possibility into the foreseeable future.
that being the case, the importance of belarus becomes even more pronounced.
now, if belarus were to partner up with the ukraine ... . well, consider it, for just a moment.
how could russia prevent it? bluff and bluster.
what could russia do about it, as a practical and practicable matter, at this juncture? not very damned much. if russian cannot control the ukraine militarily, it most certainly cannot do very much to the ukraine. oh, i suppose it might be something of a mixed blessing to have belarus in the fight against russia, because it is unlikely that belarus's military is particularly formidable.
but, consider this. moscow is just a little more than 150 miles or so from the border with belarus. a straight shot, more or less, right up the dnipro/dnieper river for most of that distance. a good location and place for tank warfare.
so, if belarus had any inclination to shed itself from russian control, if indeed it does not consider itself as part of mother russia, now might be a very opportune time to shed moscow's yoke. inconceivable? impossible? well, such considerations might very well explain why belarus has not jumped into the ukraine war on the side of russia, instead of staying on the sideline. more than anything, this appears to me to be belarus weighing its options, and waiting for the situation to clarify which direction to jump. if they thought themselves part of mother russia, they would have jumped into this fight at the "get go." but, they have not. have they.
look at the map. again. and, again.
if ukraine and belarus were to partner up in the fight against russia, and if they were to prevail, what would stop belarus from joining with the ukraine in an application to join n.a.t.o.? (if they get this far, you may quite safely conclude that putin is dead at this point, from natural causes, and in this case, a 9mm aspirin down the ear canal is natural causes in russia.)
so much for russian expansion into the affairs of western europe. russia would be contained, for the time being. russia's ability to maneuver would be greatly constrained.
so, let us look to the wisdom and intelligence of vladimir putin.--
he did not wish to be constrained by n.a.t.o., and the euro union. by initiating this war against ukraine, it appears likely that he will have brought the euro union, the united states, and n.a.t.o. right to his doorstep.
he wanted to solidify his grip on the ukraine, crimea and the black sea. at this point, it looks likely that he will loose the crimea, even if he can somehow hang on to a portion of the donbas. imho, it does not appear that he can "defeat" the ukraine as per the directives of his early war plans. he quite clearly stands the risk of being ejected from the ukraine, entirely.
the russian federation looke stable, at least from the outside. it looks very unstable at this point, and the remote possibility of russia crumbling is not some fantasy, but reasonably foreseeable. if he looses ukraine, he likely looses belarus. if he looses ukaine, then he is looking at the very real possibility of the --stans standing in open defiance of russian influence, and quite possible physical and military resistance to same.
and, at the start of this, he was looking to be asshole buddies with china. to continue in this vein, i think all such hopes in that regard are simply flushed down the toilet.
in sum, i think putin's days on this earth are numbered. in my view, he is a dead man. the sooner if the ukraine prevails in liberating its homeland, and a little later if he "wins," because he cannot win in the ukraine.
the greatest irony of all of putin's planning and scheming, is the establishment of a country forever hostile to russian aims. whether "ukraine" was in fact a modern political state before putin invaded was an open academic question. almost philosophical, in fact, given history. but it is not a question now, for this invasion has created the entity of "ukraine," if it has done nothing else. and, this state is inimically hostile to russia, to an extent that hostilities will not cease for decades, if not centuries.
you do that when you bomb maternity wards, and kill babies being birthed, and kill mama's giving birth.
john jay @ 01.27.2023
slava ukraine!! go get 'em, zelensky!!
*** russia is poking its nose back into these regions. we'll see how that goes for them.