my guestimate on the number of "russian" soldiers killed in the ukraine thus far is about 90,000 or so. that's a little higher than you'll read most places, but i am pretty comfy with it. lots of ways to get killed in a war zone, given the lethality of modern weapons.
i am also guessing the number of wounded and injured to run about 2 soldiers for every soldier killed, but being very conservative (that's very very conservative) lets make it 1 soldier wounded and injured for every soldier killed. so, say another 90,000 wounded and injured russians.
that's total casualties of around 180,000 russian troops through the end of november, 2022. now, back in february the western media figured that russia had amassed an invasion force on ukraine's border of around 130,000 troops or so. so, all of this is admittedly a bit speculative but it would appear that the entire invasion force has either been killed, wounded or injured in the war being fought on ukraine's soil.
and, it would go a long way in understanding why "runty runty poot poot" is so desperately trying to drum up more trumps to shove into the maelstrom of the ukraine war. oh, he's got some more soldiers left in russia, but given what has happened so far in the ukraine, if he commits the rest of his "trained" forces into ukraine, they will be killed and/or wounded as well. "runty runty poot poot" didn't start this war with old fat middle aged conscripts, he started it with his elite troops, and they have just been chewed to pieces ..... he cannot risk that happening to the rest of his "trained" forces.
he has stripped the cupboards bare. and, he will strip them even barer, to feed them into the war.
my guess is that by the end of january 2023 russia will have sustained somewhere around 250,000 war dead, and a like amount of wounded or injured soldiers. at this point, putin is deathly afraid that he has lost the war with the ukraine, and he will kill any amount of russian soldiers to try and prevent that. he will throw them into battle in the donetsk, and he has been doing, and the ukrainians will kill them as they have been doing. and, he will squander lives in the crimea, in a desperate bid to hold onto that bit of geography.
"runty runty poot poot" has lost crimea already. the ukrainians have made the cold hard assessment that the crimea is ripe for the taking. how do i know that? because the crimea is getting their offensive to take it up and running already, and they would not have done so unless they believed, based on cold hard observation and scheming, that they can do so, and without excessive loss.
the ukrainians understand the calculus of warfare. the russians understand nothing but dead soldiers. the ukrainians undertake nothing unless they have figured out a way to hold casualties down to the bare minimum. they didn't get this far just to abandon that practice, and they will take crimea in pretty quick order. they will have left the kerch bridge open for the outpouring of russians and russian troops, over the next couple of months.
once the crimea is emptied of russians, then the ukrainians will patiently and methodically drive the russians out of donetsk and luhansk. they will push the russians from the west, the north, and they will launch harassing attacks from the south. everything will be in reach of their weaponry: there will be no place to hide for the russians. and, n.a.t.o. will make sure that they have plenty of munitions to do it.
john jay @ 11.23.2022
p.s. in the meantime, i will be urging ukraine to attack the russians on russian soil. not attack civilians, not barraging russian civilian populations. but, attacking every bit of military hardware and assets within their reach. and, recent explosions in moscow and st. petersburg suggest that the ukrainian reach is pretty considerable.
p.s.s. i don't expect the ukrainians to be paying me much attention. laughing. but, it is intellectually enjoyable to watch them craft a resistance to the russians that is at once brilliant & far reaching, but patient and quite cautious. their defense of their homeland has been inspired, as you might well imagine, but it has also been a military tour de force. slava ukraine.
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