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October 06, 2022

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Drew458

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

Today's version of the map does not show any Ukrainian forces along that part of the river, but does show 2 good sized "partisan warfare" areas around Nova Kakhovka, another at Kakhovka a short way NE, a large one around Kherson to the west and a gigantic one surrounding Melitipol to the east.

Now follow highway E58 west almost to Kherson, and see how more "partisans" seem to be in control of the bridge at Antonivka. So E58 is cut off to Kherson. They also hold the only other bridge at Nova Kakhovka 32 miles up river, so Rt47 to Kherson is cut off. These are the only two ways in or out of Kherson, other than the (swampy?) river delta to the Gulf of the Dnipro into the Black Sea ... and Ukr forces are just 11 miles away.

In other words, Kherson is totally cut off.

If Ukraine can drive 40 miles south from Nova Kak to the border with Republic of Crimea, then the whole western end of that peninsula. But why bother with that small win, when the partisan area around Melitopol is so large it touches the bay to the south, so a 25 mile push south, right along rt E105 would cut off 5 times as much area along with Kherson. Take that, then take out the bridge at Kerch, and they just forced Crimea to surrender.

Russia is hosed.

jj


drew:


i agree.   you have put it precisely.


the ukrainians seem to have bogged down a bit just above beryslav, where a considerable water barrier stretching west seems to have held them up.    but, on the other end of things, they have a large salient, which grows larger just north of kherson, and if they drive eastly just a bit more, they can drive to the dnipro south of beryslav, and problem solved.


i agree with you about the roads.   routes 58 and 79 are for all intents and purposes very restricted to any kind of shipment of munitions and reinforcements to kherson.   i think that perhaps that are letting kherson dangle a little bit, because if they totally close up the encirclement, then they will have to frontally assault kherson and go into kherson city and do some house to house, which they do not want to do, and do not like, because it is so costly in manpower.  e.g., soldiers get killed in house to house.


that would be preferable to russia.   they have already written the soldiers off  .....   for all intents and purposes, they are dead.   i think the ukrainians are waiting for them to withdraw, string them out, and kill them while they are in disarray, as they did to them in kharkiv.   they are much easier to kill in the open, not formed up, and when their lack of discipline really really really hurts them.


as to your last statement, i agree that the russians are toast.   they cannot reinforce.    they are out of munitions, tanks, artillery and their air forces seem oddly incompetent.   they will be decades rebuilding their military, if they ever do.


and, yes, they loose crimea.


they are as the shakespearian actor who gets a sword right in the solar plexus, takes two steps and says, i am dead.   and, then falls over.   the russians are gonna make a big thud any day now.


john

Drew458

latest update:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-26


Russian shelling of Kherson continues, after they fled the city. They're still stealing Ukrainian children too ... "medical treatments" then leveraging the parents to come to Russia to get them, and not letting them return. Another depopulation effort, on the anniversary of the Holodomor, but less deadly [as far as we know]?

john jay

drew

the rooskies are off the charts when it comes to "despicable." this is genocide, pure and simple.

and, the children will be "adopted," their names/identities obliterated, so that they can never be traced.

the russians are, plain and simple, absolute shitheads.

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