several keys things emerged from putin's speech on sept. 30, announcing the annexation of regions in ukraine.--
1.) putin is under severe stress, largely incoherent, and very probably clinically "nuts." in short, he babbled, and i wouldn't doubt put some spittle on his chin.
2.) russia says the annexed territory is russia, but russia set forth no designation of "their"/"its" borders, new or otherwise. russian bureaucrats said, essentially, we'll get around to defining the claimed borders when we get around to it. now, i have never been involved in the process of setting the borders for territories i have "conquered," but i found this more than just a little bit odd.
is this the way it is done?
"it's russia, it's ours, but we don't know precisely where it is yet." that is the russian position on annexation. you figure it out.
my guess is that mr. zelensky won't be overly impressed by this performance, and will, without too much difficulty, recognize a man who is mentally unhinged from pressure. in a related note, another one of putin's intimates bit the dust in a car bombing, another "suicide" just days after one of his Illuminati shot himself while in his swimming pool. leaving a gun on the deck, and some cases in the water, and also, no doubt, some brains and blood in same.
in the meantime, ukrainian forces appear to be wrapping up the encirclement of lyman, capturing three little towns as they tighten the noose on lyman, and getting into position where they can bombard the one road leading "out of town." the ukrainians have been very impressive militarily in this war, and one of the things that really impresses me is that they do not show undue haste in their operations, and always, always, always, always do not expose their flanks to attack. they simply do not give the russians any exposure to attack in their haste to get an objective.
and, so it is in lyman. they will take it, and likely not expose themselves to anything approaching a counter attack.
at this point, the russian choices in lyman are relatively few. -- they can be destroyed piecemeal, and very methodically. -- they can flee, as in kharkiv, and be exposed to withering fire which will kill a great number of them, and be exposed to further attack when the ukrainians catch up to them. -- or, they can surrender. not very palatable choices, any of them, but that is just about what is left to them.
as at kharkiv, the ukrainians will recover damaged and abandoned equipment (some artillery & ammo would be nice, they've likely got more russian tanks than they'll have time to refurbish and get operational before the war is over), some stores, some small arms and ammo, and some outdated uniforms and the like. and, after things are tidied up at lyman, they will put the russians to chase again, and press them towards kherson.
they will also kill many untrained reservists.
john jay @ 09.30.2022
p.s. i find the fact that russia announced no borders for the "annexed" territories very interesting. is this a simple recognition that ukraine will continue to take back a whole lot of the "annexed" areas? that the russians recognize the fluid nature of the war?
or, is this putin's way out of the war? will the russians attempt to negotiate which territory they get for a cessation of hostilities? will the russians attempt to negotiate a "guaranteed corridor" to a black sea port, in exchange for getting the hell out of dodge? we'll see. but, i don't think this comports to mr. zelensky's idea as to the borders of ukraine at the end of this war, as he wants them out, period, and the original borders the same.
how many russians will putin see killed to have something to claim as a positive attainment for russiam aims, not to mention as a basis to save his own worthless hide? and, why would zelensky negotiate ukrainian territory, as he is about set to eject the russians entirely out of the ukraine?