summer patriot, winter soldier

putin's sept. 30 speech on annexation ..... no borders announced, oddly enough ..... putin seeking some wiggle room??

several keys things emerged from putin's speech on sept. 30, announcing the annexation of regions in ukraine.--

1.)  putin is under severe stress, largely incoherent, and very probably clinically "nuts."  in short, he babbled, and i wouldn't doubt put some spittle on his chin.

2.)  russia says the annexed territory is russia, but russia set forth no designation of "their"/"its" borders, new or otherwise.   russian bureaucrats said, essentially, we'll get around to defining the claimed borders when we get around to it.  now, i have never been involved in the process of setting the borders for territories i have "conquered," but i found this more than just a little bit odd.

is this the way it is done?

"it's russia, it's ours, but we don't know precisely where it is yet."    that is the russian position on annexation.   you figure it out.

my guess is that mr. zelensky won't be overly impressed by this performance, and will, without too much difficulty, recognize a man who is mentally unhinged from pressure.   in a related note, another one of putin's intimates bit the dust in a car bombing, another "suicide" just days after one of his Illuminati shot himself while in his swimming pool.   leaving a gun on the deck, and some cases in the water, and also, no doubt, some brains and blood in same.

in the meantime, ukrainian forces appear to be wrapping up the encirclement of lyman, capturing three little towns as they tighten the noose on lyman, and getting into position where they can bombard the one road leading "out of town."   the ukrainians have been very impressive militarily in this war, and one of the things that really impresses me is that they do not show undue haste in their operations, and always, always, always, always do not expose their flanks to attack.   they simply do not give the russians any exposure to attack in their haste to get an objective.

and, so it is in lyman.   they will take it, and likely not expose themselves to anything approaching a counter attack.

at this point, the russian choices in lyman are relatively few.  -- they can be destroyed piecemeal, and very methodically.  --  they can flee, as in kharkiv, and be exposed to withering fire which will kill a great number of them, and be exposed to further attack when the ukrainians catch up to them.  --  or, they can surrender.  not very palatable choices, any of them, but that is just about what is left to them.

as at kharkiv, the ukrainians will recover damaged and abandoned equipment (some artillery & ammo would be nice, they've likely got more russian tanks than they'll have time to refurbish and get operational before the war is over), some stores, some small arms and ammo, and some outdated uniforms and the like.   and, after things are tidied up at lyman, they will put the russians to chase again, and press them towards kherson.

they will also kill many untrained reservists.

john jay @ 09.30.2022

p.s.   i find the fact that russia announced no borders for the "annexed" territories very interesting.   is this a simple recognition that ukraine will continue to take back a whole lot of the "annexed" areas?  that the russians recognize the fluid nature of the war?

or, is this putin's way out of the war?   will the russians attempt to negotiate which territory they get for a cessation of hostilities?   will the russians attempt to negotiate a "guaranteed corridor" to a black sea port, in exchange for getting the hell out of dodge?  we'll see.   but, i don't think this comports to mr. zelensky's idea as to the borders of ukraine at the end of this war, as he wants them out, period, and the original borders the same.

how many russians will putin see killed to have something to claim as a positive attainment for russiam aims, not to mention as a basis to save his own worthless hide?  and, why would zelensky negotiate ukrainian territory, as he is about set to eject the russians entirely out of the ukraine?

the question now isn't whether lyman will be taken, but whether it will lead to the recovery of another huge swath of ukrainian territory as did the fall of kharkiv .....

does the path through lyman lead to the black sea, and cutting off kherson from russian support?   it seems a bit improbable, but, then again, the whole kharkiv offensive seemed a bit implausible a month or so again.

but, i think russian defeat in the whole of ukraine is in the cards.   and, amazingly soon.

the wheels are coming off the russian military.--    supplies.   logistics.   command and control structures.   "enlisted" types beating officers, for being idiots, i would presume.   people fleeing the country at the institution of call-ups for the reserves.   reserves being put into front line infantry units without benefit of any training.   even fat guys.   amazing loss of armor, to include entire armored units.   planes lost.   tanks lost.   armored personnel carriers, lost by the score.  about 60,000 dead people, which means another 100,000 injured or wounded.  absolute "deep in mud puddle" morale all over the armed services.   all in all, losses of men and equipment that cannot be replaced any time soon.  (the russians just don't have the manufacturing capability to replenish this stuff any time soon.  nor can they find places to house the people they are calling up for services  .....   belarus has volunteered some warehouses & such, for god's sake.)

the only thing worse that could happen to putin would be for his daughters to become anti-war activists.   the trouble for putin, there is not way out. *** none.

john jay @ 09.30.2022

 

***  if he asked me, i would just tell him, eat a 9mm pill right through the roof of your mouth.  seems appropriate, somehow, to me, at least.

putin ally ..... in swimming pool, dead as a post ..... multiple gun shots .....

the news account said that the body count of dead putin-rich-guy-chums is up around 15 or so.   lots & lots of suicides in his little group of associates and friends, if a guy like putin can be said to have "friends."    

at some point, the people doing the killing are going to figure out it is probably just better to "suicide" putin.  yudthinkanyhows.

laughing.

john jay @ 09.30.2022

the russians are about to loose, and the ukrainians to regain, the oblast of luhansk ..... it will happen quickly, i suspect .....

with the capture of lyman, which appears imminent,  the ukrainians are on the brink of rolling up luhansk oblast, much as they did the kharkiv oblast.

if lyman is considered as being in the middle of a circle of 360-degrees, then lyman is about 270-degrees encircled.  in short, once that occurs, then the ukrainians will have to mop up any resistance in the area, and to avoid any encirclement of their own forces.   but, the ukrainians have shown themselves to be very careful in this phase of their operations, and they are extremely mindful of their flanks, and rears.  (a good way to be in war, to be careful of your rear.   just like life, eh?)

i have been going to the isw website for updates, which i find superior to the bbc "situation map," in some respects.   it seems more up-to-date, and not so cautious about showing ukrainian gains.   and, one of the things that the isw website is very good about, is describing the writing that goes on in russian in various "milblogs," describing the russian campaign.

oddly enough, though you would think the russian blogs to be somewhat circumspect in describing russian blunders this is note the case.   and, the russian milblogs are very critical of the way the russian military has handled the war.  one of the things that has concerned them is that the russian high command treats their soldiers like mushrooms, keeping them in the dark and treating them like shit, insofar as the status of the campaign goes.  in kharkiv this was so, and the first intimation that some units got that things were very seriously amiss, was when the ukrainians basically were set to occupy the town and allied areas.   this led, in the eyes of the milbloggers, to the disastrous flight and abandonment of positions in and around kharkiv, as soldiers fled in panic rather than being overrun.

the milblogs say the russian high command is committing the same errors, the same stupidities in and around lyman, and they greatly fear another rout as soldiers flee when they finally discern that their positions are untenable.   in short, the russian milblogs do not see an orderly withdrawal from the area, preserving as much strategic and tactical discipline among the troops as would be desirable.

it makes for interesting and discerning writing and description at isw, and i recommend it.

and, so far, i see no reason for my to back off my assessment as to how the ukrainians will proceed in their attack upon the russians.   i see them pinning the russians in kherson by steady attack, and rolling the russians up from the east, after severing their lines, and cutting off their logistic support and reinforcement from russia.    and, if they do this, they will starve the crimea.   and, kherson.    and, capture a lot of trading stock with russia, in the form of prisoners and assets.

when this is all done, the ukraine may have more serviceable & operational modern russian armor, in the form of t-70, 72 and 80's tank and the like, than the russians.  the russians, by the way, are now reduced to taking t-62's out of mothballs, dusting them off, and putting them into service.

update, 09.29.2022.  lyman will fall pretty soon, within a day or so.  my guess is that many russian soldiers will surrender, rather than face ukrainian mop up operations as they flee towards russia.   from what i can glean from the sources i am reading, ukraine is likely to take several thousand russian soldiers prisoner, pehaps as many as 5,000 or so.

this will be a pain in the butt handling this many prisoners.   ukraine would much rather have killed them as they attempted escape from the encirclement of lyman.  with the capture of lyman, i expect that ukraine will turn to the luhansk oblast as its next military target, and will finally begin the real push to take kherson, by attacking westward.   if they can move quickly enough they have a great opportunity to flank and/or attack russian forces from the rear.   we'll see.   end update.

the russians are, in reality, being beaten from pillar to post in the ukraine.   and, they know it.  

john jay @ 09.29.2022

it's odd, but while the ukrainians improve their war fighting skills, the russians just get more inept .....

this is, i suppose, the difference between fighting for your country, and the creation of a country, and being someplace you'd rather not be, and getting killed in the process.--

for instance, at the start of the war the ukrainians had 11 or 12 su-24 fighter bomber, of which a large number were destroyed and shot down in the first days of the war.   within a week or so, as i understand it, they had no more su-24's, nor presumably the pilots to the same.

yet this afternoon, i watched a youtube film of two su-24's making a very high speed bombing run at low altitude on some russian armor, and making deadly hits.  now "close air support" requires a lot of skill and elan at medium altitudes, but the demands for precision are even greater at low altitudes and high speed.  yet the ukrainians just nailed the targets.

where did the su-24's come from?   and, where did the pilots come from, to do such a demanding task?

well, the plains were "easy."   the youtube narrative explained that they literally search scrap heaps and junk yards and moth balled old tired out fighters, and scrounged the parts and engines, and built some more of the damned things.   yes, dear friends, in the middle of a war.    and, where did the pilots for the plains come from, and how did they attain the proficiency for such an attack?

that's a larger and tougher question, but i have to think that the ukrainians have displayed, accross the board, an incredible motivation to get trained and proficient in warfare, and tremendous bravery, tenacity and drive in fighting it.  i saw a picture today of a young lady carrying a "manpad" type missile over her shoulder, and she was reputed to have used such a weapon with great proficiency in the initial defense of kiev at the start of the war.  so, with her example in mind, i have to think the ukrainian pilots learned on the job, and fought to survive and fight some more.

the same goes for those ukrainians trained, in the west, to use western weaponry.   they didn't have much time to learn how to use them, but they apparently paid attention, and took the weapons back to ukraine with a desire to use them against the hated russian "occupiers."

this is the difference between the russian soldiers and the ukrainian defenders of flag and nation.   the ukrainians want to fight.   the russians plainly do not.

john jay @ 09.28.2022

ukraine makes gains east of karkiv, and are poised to retake a large swath of territory from the russians ....

the ukrainians have nearly completed the complete encirclement of lyman, which is a significant rail and logistics hub in the northeast of the ukraine.  in the process, there are going to be more large casualties for the russians, and a further loss of strategic leverage for them.

and, the russians have used the first of their recent conscripts to "reinforce" battered units in the ukraine.  russian replacement troops are being placed in front line positions with no "basic" training, and have no training at all in most military disciplines.   you may regard them, without fear of contradiction, as "cannon fodder."   they are going to die, without contributing anything to the combat effectiveness of the units in which they are placed.

the ukrainians, with the taking of lyman, will have greatly increased their ability to retake luhansk and donetsk.   the russian house of cards is falling apart.   they loose more armor, more airplanes and more armored vehicles every day, and troops losses are enormous.

it is looking pretty grim for the russians.   we have been a little spoiled as "spectators" by the very rapid collapse around kharkiv, but the ukrainians have been making steady inroads into russian communications lines, supply depots, and further erode the combat effectiveness of russian units.   big gains are coming soon.

john jay @ 09.28.2022

john jay @  09.28.2022

why did the russians hold the referendums in ukraine when they did .....

the reason is simple.--

they know that they are being ejected from ukraine, and wanted to hold the "referendums" before their ejectment. 

the russian assessment is that they are loosing, and that their position in ukraine proper is becoming untenable.    and, that they will be gone, soon.

john jay @ 09.28.2022

p.s.   this is where it gets tricky.   simply put, russia will be gone from ukraine, but will still claim the "subject" oblasts to be part of russian via annexation.   by this time, ukraine will be part of n.a.t.o.   if fighting erupts again, then russia will be at war with a n.a.t.o. member, and, therefore, at war with n.a.t.o.

putin wants to enlarge the war.  he will destroy russia, because the full forces of n.a.t.o. will kick the living shit out of the russians.

then, we will see, if putin is crazy enough to use nukes.   or, if the russians are crazy enough to leave him in power long enough to play this situation out. 

 

we shall see.

the trouble with russian tanks .....

it's not what you think.   as a matter of fact, when the ukraine gets its "russian tanks" refurbished and combat ready, the tanks will be effective instruments of battle.   in support of, and supported by, infantry battling for possession and control of ground.

there is a key word there.   and, it is "infantry."

the trouble with russian tanks is that they have no infantry support as they are deployed.   tanks need infantry, heavily armed infantry, to protect them.   it has been ever thus.    and, it is lacking in the ukraine, and as a result, the ukraine is destroying russian tanks by the score.   zelensky says that ukraine has killed about 2,300 russian main battle tanks, and scores of armored personnel carriers.

given that russia is scouring its tank bone-yards for t-62's to throw into the fray to replace the t-70's and 72's destroyed by the ukrainians, who can doubt zelensky's assertions in this regard.   the ukrainians have destroyed so many front line russian tanks, tanks that they cannot replace by new manufacture, that the russians are reduced to fielding obsolete older tanks.

and the reason for this is that russian infantry are apparently far too few, and their deployment in battle far to stupid, to adequately provide protection for the tanks.   how?

well, the great destroyer of russian tanks are rockets, troop carried "manpads" and rockets from other sources.  who hasn't seen the film of ukrainian troops on tops of roofs firing almost point blank down onto russian tanks maneuvering in the streets below.   or, rockets being fired at tree line on tanks traveling on roads, moving un-escorted by screening infantry.   the tanks cannot prevent this, and they are sitting ducks for infantry with missiles who are not interdicted by their infantry bearing the anti-tank weapons.

if you read about the great tank battles of wwii between the germans and the russians, you will be introduced to the phrase "infantry swarm," a quaint terms describing the role of infantry in those battles.   as crazy as it may sound, the ground contested by the warring tank armies was also contested by masses of infantry, and one of the things these soldiers did was to destroy tanks.   by attacking them, on foot, and literally crawling all over them, planting explosives here and there, and blowing off wheels with satchel charges and the like.   it is very surprising to read how many tanks in these battle were destroyed by infantry, thin skinned no armor, people who may as well have been naked for all practical purposes.

in all of the little films i have seen showing the battlefields in the ukraine, i cannot recall seeing, even once, russian tanks traveling over ground protected by flanking infantry.   oh, i have seen films of tanks and armored personnel carriers being destroyed at the same time, but, not once that i can recall have i seen dismounted infantry in immediate support of the tanks, nor once, seeing infantry flanking the tanks, sanitizing ground within, say, 800 yards or so of the tanks.

and, it is immediately apparent that russian infantry has precious few weapons by which to deal with ukrainian soldiers armed to the teeth with manpads and other missiles.

as long as this situation persists, the russians armored forces will continue to be destroyed at the rates established in this warfare.  40 to 50 pounds of missile system versus 40,000 pounds of russian tank, conveniently supplied with a couple hundred pounds of high explosive to be set off by the missiles which strike them.   in a word, ka-boom!!!

for some odd reason, the russians just do not appear to have tumbled to these facts.  which is all to the good so far as i am concerned, because i wish for nothing more than to see the russians get royally spanked for their transgressions.***   in short, i hope to see the ukraine to continue killing russian soldiers by the truck load.

but, there you have it.   the key to land warfare, to taking and keeping ground, is infantry in adequate number to do its job(s) as required.   the russians thought that they could carry this invasion off without infantry, that they could do it cheaply and quickly by capturing kiev, and they were wrong.    dead wrong.

go ukraine!!!

john jay @ 09.28.2022

*** to include the atrocity the russians have inflicted upon ukrainian civilians.   these atrocities amount to attempted genocide, and i hope to see putin tried for these matters, if the son of a bitch doesn't kill himself to avoid this.

zelensky says that around 58,000 russian soldiers have been killed in around 7 months of fighting .....

just before russia began this little misadventure, she claimed 130,000 troops or so poised on the ukrainian border, before invading.   putin also said there was to be no invasion, before invading.   further cementing his reputation as one of the biggest lying bastards on the face of the earth, after he began the invasion.

the russians thus far have admitted to around 7,000 war dead.   further cementing their reputations as ..... , well, you get the picture.  they are simply lying bastards.   start, middle, finish.

be that issue (the accuracy of the russian war dead) as it may, the russian soldier has borne the burden of serving putin's ambitions, and putin has not.    and, now he wants more russians to go to the ukraine, to most certainly for some of them to become more russian war dead.   by doing so, he is doing everything he can to "salvage something" out of this whole mess, so that the war doesn't kill him, as well.***

i tend to believe zelensky is more accurate in his assessment of the russian war dead than russian statements to the contrary.  that means, more or less, that of the 130,000 russian soldiers who invaded ukraine, just under 1/2 of them have met their deaths there, as a result of the ineptness of their commanders and of putin.

58,000 out of 130,000  .....   that's a lot of russian stupid.

the russian army has exhausted, wasted, its most advanced ordnance and weapons.   they are almost out of missiles used as artillery, and smart weapons, and guided munitions, if western analysts are to be believed.  pretty soon, they will have nothing left but "dumb weapons," which is more or less fitting considering how dumb the use of the other stuff has been.

the ukrainians have killed their best main battle tanks, and they are now scrapping up old t-62 tanks to replace the t-72's & 70's that the ukrainians have destroyed.   in short, they are out of their main line battle tanks.  gone.   kaput.   turned into scrap.   i believe it quite likely that the ukrainians now have more captured t-72's and 90's than the russians have.

more importantly, (to everyone except v. putin), the russians do not have trained crews for their tanks, and certainly no one adequately trained to contend with the emerging ukrainian battle doctrine on how to destroy massed armor.   the russians would do about as well to simply pat their tank crews on the butts, point them generally in the direction of the ukrainian forces, and tell them, "go get 'em."   in other words, any russian who goes out in a t-62 to do battle w/ the ukraine, is just another dead russian, ready to be killed by any number of exotic weapons he never thought possible.

other russian armored vehicles?  rattling smoke belching coffins, that's what.

the russian air force?    what russian air force?

so, in sum, putin has thus far killed 58,000 of his countrymen.   and, "accounted for" about twice that many wounded and/or injured.

and, he means to kill more.  he means to kill russians until his ambitions, however shadowy and incomprehensible they may be, are satisfied.   and, specifically, when and if the russians actually prevail in this war, what will have been gained?   they will have destroyed ukraine to possess ukraine.   their economy is headed to oblivion.   and, they will sell no more gas nor other energy product to europe, because someone is destroying the gas pipelines carrying the gas to european markets, and will no doubt attack their other sources/access to valuable currency.   putin is destroying that for which he lusted, and what putiin has not destroyed, the ukrainians will destroy.

he is an idiot.   and, russians are idiots for following and obeying him to their doom.   and, idiots for not killing the bastard before he brings ruination upon every last one of them.

58,000 dead russians because of this war, and the one russian who needs killing still draws breath.   put plainly, putin needs to be exterminated, like any other noxious bug.   and, his death needs to be a certainty, proof of his death absolute.   so that he cannot come back to haunt russia some more.

john jay @ 09.27.2022

***  i firmly believe that it has already killed him, or, more precisely, the lying bastard has already killed himself.   it is painfully obvious that he is looking for a way out to preserve whatever reputation that he has (now, that is a major laugh!!), and to save face for being badly beaten.   thugs are like that when they get righteously whipped.

i have never bought a fender guitar, strictly speaking .....

not strictly speaking.

but, of the various guitars which have passed through my hands, at least five or six of them were "fenders," in the sense that they were "fender" "knock offs," that is, copies that were very faithful to the fender way of doing things.  several of them were almost exact copies of the fender, while other were clearly fender inspired, if not direct copies.

the fender head stock is iconic, both because it looks kinda cool, and it is very user friendly in its layout.    it makes sense, and works well.   and, the style of the fender strat is probably the most copied design of any guitar ever made, and the tele has also inspired a lot of guitar designs.   the through-body stringing is simple, leads to a very simple bridge layout 9which works), and also contributes to a relative ease in getting the strings down low to the frets so you don't have to push for a month to fret the string.

and, there is the matter of the maple necks.  fender necks are simple, maple, strong and they stay stable.

the last guitar that i will ever purchase is an ibanez, and "inspired" by the fender tele in layout and tone.   it follows the fender pattern of being painted, and in this case it is a chris miller autograph model last made in 2014, and painted in "antique ivory" with a pale canned pea green trim, ... , and, just gorgeous to my eye.   they were made by ibanez in 2013 and 2014, and that was it for the model "cmm1" (and "cmm1-4", if i am not mistaken.)   the original price sticker on mine was dated 1-21-15, and the guitar sat on the shelves for 7 years before i got it  ...  why, is a mystery to me.

it's got a p.a.f. single coil pickup on the neck, and a humbucker of some sort at the bridge, which i suspect is an ibanez model 58 or 59 humbucker, with a split coil tone control on the bucker.   it has a wonderful mellow tone, which can get pretty raunchy with a strong attack on the strings.   it sounds wonderful, the strings are low, and it just has a very pretty tone.   did i mention that?   laughing.

so, my ibanez is the last fender i buy.  it's that good a player, and a pretty guitar.

while imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, you'd think that fender, and gibson, would get tired of being copied so often.    and, that it would hurt their sales/business.   (i've had gibsons, and they are wonderful, and i've had ibanez's which have copied them, and though the ibby's have been good, they haven't been as good at the gibby's, both of which were stellar.)***    from an entirely selfish standpoint, i don't mind that others copy the gibson & fenders, because i can almost afford the knockoffs, while the originals are just too expensive.    and, i am no musical prodigy, so i don't really deserve to play the best of the best.

the question arises, how does fender do it?

well, leo fender was a bit of a manufacturing genius, as least as pertains to guitars.  his bolt on necks and solid bodies made for easy & repeatable construction, and avoided the risks and cost of fabricating fitted and hand joined necks.  and, the bolt on neck is marvelously strong, and rigid:  lots of triangulation is that 4-bolt pattern.  his use of cheap (& plentiful) automotive paints, eschewing expensive to fabricate & apply stains, avoid high finish costs.   the through-body stringing also made fabrication quick, and sure.   and, cheap.

and, oh, yeah, the guitars sound just right, and are flexible enough to play almost any kind of music, and robust enough to support any style of playing.

but, i'll not buy another guitar.   the ibby is the guitar of my dreams, and it doesn't hurt that it is so damned pretty.  (i won't live long enough to have many more dreams, especially guitars.)

john jay @ 09.27.2022

*** the expensive and fancy guitars didn't last, because they were casualties of the various economic, health & domestic reversals i have experienced, being sold off to good homes to raise money.   hey, that is the way "she goes" sometimes.   life is like that.  some ups, some downs.