the other day a young woman was killed in a car bombing in moscow, russia. not just any young woman, but an ultra-nationalist daughter to an ultra-nationalist father who is a close advisor to vladimir putin, and who was, and is, a very outspoken advocate of a more aggressive war against the ukraine.
the young woman was driving her father's car. sort of by happenstance, if i am given to understand things correctly. chances are that the bomb was directed at her father, and given the situation with the war and such, it was probably a "message" to be delivered to him as a notice to putin.
and, as might be expected, no one has stepped forward to claim "credit" for the killing, misdirected or otherwise.
well, what is to be made of all of this?
it certainly isn't "business as usual" in a smoothly running total dictatorship, and it certainly hints at some serious rumblings behind the scenes in the kremlin. a message for putin? it could very well be, and killing a close associate of putin is probably a lot easier task to accomplish than killing putin himself, if this was intended to influence russian "policy" in the ukraine.
let's look at the larger circumstance in russia, viz a viz the war in the ukraine.--
things have not gone well for the russians in the ukraine. save for killing ukrainian civilians, the russians have not accomplished very much in the ukraine, and they hold no territory that wasn't controlled by ukrainian separatists before the war started. in short, they have made absolutely no territorial acquisitions that aids their war aims, in the slightest.
this has been at serious harm to the russian exchequer, in any number of ways, not the least in terms of european and u.s. sanctions aimed at the russian economy, such as it is. most embarrassingly, they have had to cut a deal with the ukrainians to trans ship their grain harvest out of odessa, a ukrainian port held firmly by the ukrainians.
they have squandered their elite troops, suffering embarrassing losses of elite units. (i don't mention the loss of life to their soldiers, they don't give a shit about that ..... even the russians, though, recognize the impairment such losses mean to battle effectiveness.) they have squandered their war stores, through a profligate use of advanced weaponry, again most effectively against civilians, and not in the least hampering the ukrainian's ability to wage a well thought out and executed defense of their territories. they are out of or short of almost anything that would be useful in a conflict with n.a.t.o., and thereby they have imperiled their own existence.
all, in all, one could very well maintain that they have been grossly stupid and ineffective in the conduct of their campaign in the ukraine.-- 25,000 to 30,000 dead, another 50 to 60,000 dead and wounded. somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,500 tanks destroyed, and, more importantly, the lost of the tank crews: they have few people who are trained to operate them, let alone to deploy in actual combat against a skillful tank-killing foe. thousands more armored personnel carriers, along with the loss of trained crews and combat units that were trained to attack from them. bombs, missiles, the list goes on.
and, as an added little detail, they are just about out of the computer chips and controls that run the whole mess.
at the same time, their foe has not had his fighting capability impaired in the slightest. the ukrainians are mastering the art of defense, striking quickly and then vacating the field in order to avoid becoming enmeshed with the russians. and, all the while, maintaining their defensive lines and not giving ground. it has been, well, artful.
so, all things considered, it is not illogical in the slightest to conclude that this bomb, the bomb that killed the woman, was intended to convey someone's displeasure over the conduct of the war in the ukraine, directly to vladimir putin. "hisself," as we say out northeast oregon way. (oh, yes, we talk that way sometimes.) i believe the bomb was directed toward the woman's father, who has vociferously advised putin to increase his efforts in the ukraine.
how? how can he waste any more resource? how can he get more of his troops killed? how can he commit more of his war making capability to destruction?
yes, this is the problem that putin has, and he knows it. what he doesn't know, is how to get the hell out of this mess. is there anyone in russia who has the nerve to tell him? i doubt it. dictators are not well known for entertaining logic that they do not themselves possess, or exercising good sense over hubris, or being good and attentive listeners. putin started this war on an idiot's lark, on listening to ego-boosting ill-begotten advise, and likely he will end it the same way. or, going up in the next car bomb? swinging from a rope, hanging dead by his heels?
john jay @ 08.23.2022
post script, 08.23.2022 . russian police -- "the ukrainians did it." russian police and investigative personnel are advancing the theory that the bombing was carried out by a ukrainian woman who entered the country on july 23 this year, and fled via estonia on the day or day after the bombing killed the daughter of a russia ultra nationalist. they say the ukrainian security police orchestrated the bombing.
the ukrainians deny having done so.
well, this is interesting, to say the least. and, it leaves pertinent details kind of hanging out in the rare ether. just how, for instance, did the woman sneak a car bomb into russia, or the ingredients and parts for one, for instance. and, given the status and stature of the victim, or perhaps her father as the intended victim, just how did this ukrainian woman gain access to the automobile involved to place a car bomb upon it, and how was it armed and triggered. timer. radio control.
now, the russian "police agency" theory supposes that this woman sneaked the bomb or parts to the bomb into russia? how? and, if she were coming from ukraine, or belarus, or even estonia, would she and her mode of transportation not been subject to search and heightened scrutiny? was a bomb fabricated in russia, and delivered to her? and, again, how was access gained to the automobile which was bomb, and which killed the nationalist's daughter?
and, would not anyone leaving russia, under the circumstances of such a high level murder, not been subject to very tough scrutiny. nah, doesn't seem plausible, ... , does it to you?
to me, the "police agency" theory seems a bit of a stretch. certainly, not absolutely impossible, but not terribly plausible. or, probable for that matter.
as for me, i rather suspect that the russian security services, i.e., working at putin's direction, are behind it. the woman's father was known to be pressuring putin to do more in the ukraine, and putin may simply have gotten irritated at the criticisms. dictators are like that, especially if advisors outgrow their britches, so to speak. sort of the russian version of a "cautionary tale" to others, as it were. putin may have felt aggrieved at the nattering, and just decided to shut it up.
simple as that. and, i like simple. it is just so straight forward.
motive. plenty of opportunity. means to carry out the plan. means to squelch any "look see" into the facts of the matter. it all points to putin, and his henchmen, to me. and, it follows pretty true "to form," oft repeated. putin may not know how to get out of the ukraine, but, he knows how to kill enemies one at a time. or, loudmouths. end post script.
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