summer patriot, winter soldier

anybody ever given any thought as to the temperature of the earth without hurricanes, tornadoes and other "natural disasters?"

well, the fact is, such storms do not create heat, they consume it, they are fueled by heat energy.   about the only negative thing that can be said of them is that they move heat energy around to different places, and they get the bad press only when the places they move it to, in the forms of wind, wave, storm, rain and the like, (to places of dense human habitation.  (which places should be getting the drift of things by now, one would think.)

no, such thiings do not generate heat/temperature, they consume it and moderate it.

what ocurred to me, as i sit here working through a gout attack on my right big toe, is whether anyone has attempted to quantify the precise effects of these tremendous transfers and movements, and consumptions, of heat energy over the surface of the globe.

matter, as the old saying  (and assumption)   goes, is neither created nor destroyed, and the sum total of energy is a constant.  throughout the universe, and, one would assume, on our little orb.

now, take the matter of a solar flare, an eruption of matter from the sun, that goes hurtling from the sun and through our solar system.   scientists claim that they know that the interior of the sun is actually substantially cooler in its interior regions than at the surface, where it for some reason is very much hotter than the interior.

now, when one of these solar flares erupts from the sun, say a big one which reaches a huge distance from the sun's surface breaking away from the sun's gravitational pull at enormous velocity, how much mass does it take with it, and how much heat energy?  and, how much speed does it take to escape the sun's gravity.

the damn things are huge, and hot, and they are moving at enormous speed  .....   they have to be.

when the earth gets directly into the path of one of these solar flares it causes tremendous disruption to the gravitational belts surrounding the earth (think of the little lines surrounding the poles of a magnet, which for most purposes the earth is).   communications systems get overloaded, and are disrupted.   all sorts of mischief.

how much of that energy and solar mass does the earth absorb?

does it impact the temperature of the earth?

does anyone know?    has anyone ever attempted to quantify it?   if not, why not?

as i age, and as my feet hurt like hell at 3.30 a.m., i think about these sorts of things.    and, the more i think about the enormity of the sun's power, i am coming to view the earth not particularly distinct from the sun, but at part of its structure, to be sure on the periphery of things, but, still, part of the workings of the sun.

especially in terms of these gigantic solar flares.

the sun goes through cycles on these things, some of which are sufficiently distinct as to be noticed by we earthlings.   what do they contribute to our weather.   and, what about those cycles and phenomena that we are not yet clever enough to note?   what do they do?

now, by our own lights, we are clever and appreciable.  but, in terms of other scales, we are the proverbial ant floating down the mississippi on a blade of grass, yelling "raise the drawbridge" as we pass underneath.   in our arrogance, in our haste to claim some significance in the grand scheme of things, we ought not to forget this, especially in our quest to understand some things that are perhaps still a ways beyond our reach.

i counsel humility and care not to overreach in our zeal for significance.   in all things.

john jay @ 07.01.2022

the ineluctable truth of global warming .....

the premise of global warming theory is that pollutants produced by and in the service of man are causing the temperature of the world to rise at alarming rates.

(personally, i find most "research" and "thought" along this line more religious conviction in search of supporting facts, than anything else.  sort of a marxist politics/urban theatre covered in greasepaint.  but, that is apparently just me.   so, for purposes of this very short essay, consider global warming a "scientific fact.")

assume "global warming" as caused by man, therefore, a verity.

any rigorous & disciplined thought on the matter comes face to face with one ineluctable fact, a truth if you will.  a truth that is being ignored by the doomsday soothsayers of global warming.  and, that is, the human population explosion is the root cause of global warming.

it is human population growth the fuels the fire of carbon combustion and therefore emission.  human population growth is the driving force of global warming.  as with most truth, it is simple as that.

any and all measures to decrease global warming are meaningless without reducing population.  this truth is the big foreboding presence brooding in the corner at an otherwise gala event.

without addressing this truth, all pronouncements on the subject are mere posturing, entertaining the rubes, as it were.  or, more simply put, ... , lying.

john jay @ 06.29.2022

 

ineluctable and inextricable update, 07.01.2022 .   it follows, therefore, as night the day, if we accept the above logic, that there are only two alternate paths to reduce the pollution "causing" global warming:  1.)reduce the levels of production of pollutants, or 2.) reduce the human population, thereby decreasing the demand for, production of and consumption of those things causing global warming.***

o.k., who is gonna be the first to go, as it is doubtful humans will suddenly become less avaricious?    and, just who or what will send them on their way in the service of mankind?

pestilence, war and famine used to rather admirably perform these functions, in a gender neutral and almost ethically & moral fashion (notice the word "almost" ) in the days before the hopeless muddle of genetic & social engineering.   those "halcyon" days are gone.

suggestions, anyone?"  sun screen?   end update. 

 

*** i believe this covered in several early iterations of "star trek" .

 

 

 

some more on "economies" ..... money for layabouts and lazy bastards is worthless ..... simple as that .....

money is worthless, unless it is premised upon a labor market in which the working man is paid fairly for his labor, so that he may acquire goods and services with it.   it is the bedrock exchange of values which supports a fee society.

i didn't say a society without strains, or conflicts, or unrest ...  i said a free society in which the exchange of values is worked out daily through the market.

government can print all the money it wants to "stimulate" things, but, it stimulates nothing unless supported by labor.   no labor, no value, and most certainly, no "value added."

this is why the biden administration dumping 17 or 18 trillion dollars of currency into the money supply immediately upon biden taking office was about as stupid and harmful to an economy as possible.  this act, all by itself, fueled inflation  .....   it was done purposefully.

john jay @  06.23.2022

 

p.s.   my favorite history professor in college was frederick breit, a graduate of the university of chicago back when that meant something.  his ancestory was german, his country of allegiance acquired very late in the history of his family.   his antecedents lived through the german weimar republic, a post wwi government which paved the way for the acquisition of power by adolf hitler via its stupid and misguided economic policies.

as in sri lanka, the weimar first bankrupted the government and then laid waste to the economy of germany.    professor breit told stories of family and society rushing home with worthless currency trying to pay the landlords rent, before the currency was once again reduced in value by runaway inflation.   perhaps the stories are/were apocryphal, but they related people carrying wheel barrows full of the stuff to pay bills.   it got so bad, that the ink of the bills cost more than the "face value" of the currency being printed.

well, we are on the way towards this very situation, as the left rushes headlong into a policy of destroying our industry, both in good made, and in the incentive of people to work for their upkeep by dint of the sweat on their brows.

money paying for nothing (as in layabouts and lazy bastards, to put it bluntly), is worthless.  period.

i used to think that joe biden was just a demented fucking idiot .....

.....   but, now i think he is an evil & malevolent demented fucking idiot.***

and, that is the name of that tune.

john jay @ 06.23.2022

 

***  everything that is happening in america is part of a leftist plan, a scheme to break american power and influence.  nothing is accidental.  this will result in civil war.  the sooner, the better, as far as i am concerned.   they want it, let them have it.

sri lanka collapses .... it didn't "just happen" ....

the sri lanka prime minister says that not only is the government bankrupt/broke, but that the sri lankan economy has collapsed, and is no longer functioning.

this should be a reminder that such things as "economies" are not something that is "automatic and guaranteed," but are creatures of an intellectual and ideological system that supports them.  in short, no underlying belief system(s), and nor any notions free exchange for value, trade and the value of currency, and there is no "economy."

for most of human history "economies" did not exist.   there were markets, and barter and such, but economies on the scale of modern conceptualizations simply weren't.

this is something the idiot biden and lefty demagogues cannot wrap their heads around, and something that will end up being a curse to us.  they haven't values that support "economy" and "trade," and their beliefs will destroy "economy."  whatever your belief system, and whether you think this good or bad, this is just the way it is.

"economies" weren't built in mere days, it took centuries for their underpinnings to endure, but they sure as hell can be destroyed in mere day.

john jay @ 06.23.2022

p.s.  the south & central america's are embarking on another fling with marxist socialism.  you can watch sri lanka all over again.  putin gloats that russia will have trade with the america's, and the america's will discover all that that entrails.  poor bastards.

putin's folly ..... or, how the chinese play the russians ..... (look up the word "patsy") .....

the chinese purport to support the russians, in their quest of conquest.

for the russians, this is a dubious relationship to pursue.   for the chinese, it is of obvious advantage, as the russians (supposedly) have all the nukes any "partnership" needs.   so, if either needs to rattle the sabers, the russians have the missiles.  in the meantime, the chinese have looked up, noted the advantages of a deep water navy, so they are building one.

advantage, china. 

what this means can be stated quite plainly.   in any battle of nukes between the west and russia, russia gets incinerated.   just count the number of dependable nukes held by the west, as opposed to the russian stockpile.  oh, the russians will destroy a lot of real estate and kill people by the hordes.  but, the west simply leaves anything and everything scorched earth and/or floating in dirty radioactive clouds as they circulate the earth.

if the chinese play it right, and they will, they will stand aloof from the carnage and destruction.  "we have no dog in this fight" will be the refrain.   but, we "support" the russians in all their adventures.   "go roooooskies!!" will be the behind the scenes message.

in short, the russians are being played for the "fall guy" by the chinese.   they are no longer a superpower, they have settled for being a very large "patsy."   plain and simple.

the chinese are laughing to the bank.  (enough metaphors??)

john jay @ 06.21.2022

u.s. deaths in 8 years of fighting in viet nam compared to russian deaths in 100 plus days in ukraine .....

the united states suffered just about 58,000 combat deaths in roughly 8 years of war in viet nam.   it is hard to say just how many deaths were suffered by viet namese forces in that period of time.

in somewhat less than 110 days of combat in the ukraine the russians have suffered 30 to 35,000 deaths, according to the ukraine.    russia remains more or less silent in the matter.

as seems to be the cases in most wars, a lot of soldiers suffer wound of varying severity, but serious wounds and injuries run roughly twice as many a fatalities suffered in combat.   war exacts a grievous toll on those who fight.   there is no way around it.

but, the casualties inflicted by the ukraine upon the russian forces are horrendously out of proportion to the combat looses inflicted upon u.s. forces by viet cong and north viet namese troops during the viet nam war.  call 100 days just a little under 1/3 of a year: if you extrapolate russian deaths to a full year, assuming the rate of death remained a rough constant, they are suffering somewhere between 90,000 and 100,000 deaths a year, or from 700 to 800,000 deaths over an eight year period.

these figures for the ukraine war are not hard and fast, but even factoring the "press release" aspect of the war reporting, the russians are loosing a lot of troops, at a very high russian casualty rate.   the toll in loss of equipment for the russians, to include tanks and other armor, and loss of artillery and the like, is equally horrendous.

the russians seem unable to supply their troops with any degree of certainty, and the russian's ability to replenish losses, in troops and equipment, seems seriously at question.    the russians are suffering very heavily in troop morale (and the ukrainian troops seem less enthusiastic about the war as it grinds on.)

at some point, putin and coterie are going to have to face up to these losses.   the military capability of the russian forces is already substantially impaired.   how much more can they suffer, and be said to have a battle ready military.

on the one hand, a dictator is in jeopardy of becoming a casualty statistic.   on the other hand, the very existence of a country is at stake.

it is imperative that we get the ukrainians more fire power, and soon.   europe is at stake.   and, if the russian attempted conquest of the ukraine is successful, it does our strategic posture substantial harm.    it is a serious dust up.

john jay @ 06.19.2022

look at the previous blog ..... it will explain why russia wants the ukraine so badly ..... it is, in point of fact, as "little peter" putin puts it, an "existential matter .....

it is that simple.   without an infusion of the skills and attitudes found in the ukrainian people, russia may not exist 100 years from now.   there is very little holding it together as a nation right now.   the simple fact is, there is not very much in the modern russian state that holds the loyalty of the people.   it is certainly not the government.   it is certainly not the oligarchs, who cynically expend russian resources.   and there is no loyalty to the corruption and outright theft of resources by those who "govern" the country.

this is why putin pursues the war against the ukraine.  he needs it to hold russia together.   simple as that, in his mind.

john jay @ 06.15.2022

previous blog post, "economic supremacy in the year 2031  ...   hint:  russia is not an economic super power, not now, and not then, and perhaps not ever ..."    john jay 06.15.2022

 

 

economic supremacy in the year 2031 ..... hint: russia is not an economic super power, not now, and not then, and perhaps not ever .....

google had a little blurb and accompanying chart purportedly forecasting which countries shall reign supreme economically by the 2030's.   an interesting short article accompanied it, predicting the output of various countries in trillions of u.s. dollars.

the countries at the top of the chart were, in order of supremacy, 1.)china, 2.)the u.s.a., and 3.)india each with approximately an annual economic output of $30 trillion.    that's a lot of economic activity.   japan and germany were positioned pretty high, but no other countries even flirted with the predicted output of the top three.  (the forecasts did not account for economic/political collapse, declining birth rate, war, revolution and/or contagion, factors known to have proven disruptive to past economies.)

russia is not even in the top ten.   it simply is not now, nor is it predicted to be, an economic powerhouse.   this is pretty astounding in its own little way, given that the country of russian spans 11 time zones, and occupies about 10% of the earth's land mass.  there simply isn't much economic production out of a country with such enormous natural & material assets, to put the matter bluntly.   inefficiency and corruption pretty much cripple the russian economy.   nor is there much societal energy devoted to settling and making productive all that area.

economically, the russians are notorious underachievers.

and, this goes a long way towards explaining why the russian military is struggling so miserably in its war efforts in the ukraine.   at first glance, the ukraine appears badly over matched by the russians.  (and, somewhat beset by the same cultural lassitude's.)   but, the russian military is beset by the same failings as russian society and economy.--   they have fast planes, but many fighter bombers have rudimentary fire and guidance systems for the missiles they carry, so they cannot hit targets with any precision.  (maybe that's why they bomb apartment buildings, because those they can hit.)   there troops suffer shortages in food, gasoline, and in ammunition and artillery shells, because of russia's lackadaisical logistics and production.   and, the troops suffer horrible morale, having simply abandoned tanks and artillery because they have run out of supplies and ammunition   .....  this explains why so many russian generals have been killed in combat, something that has rarely happened in modern armies, because they are near the battle zones trying to spur on laggard troops.

more importantly, it goes a long ways in explaining why the russians have been so extremely deficient in replacing destroyed tanks, planes, artillery pieces, and, most importantly, replacing troop casualties with freshly trained troops.   and, this is why, with a little help from western militaries, the ukraine has to be favored in a war of attrition.

thus far in the war, the russians have shown no urgency in replenishing either trained troops, or equipment, or weaponry.   and, it shows up in "strategy and tactics" in the southeast, where they have simply dug in, and entrenched, and seemingly abandoned any design or ability to launch fresh attacks by infantry and/or armor.   they simply shell the ukrainians unceasingly with artillery .....  heaven knows what they will do if they run out of shells for the artillery pieces.

and, this is why the ukrainians desparately want missiles and artillery that can find, locate and reach out to destroy russian artillery emplacements.   if they get that (and ukrainian troops are in the united states being trained in these assets, prior to them being shipped to the ukraine and used against russia.    and, this is why putin is using every tactic he can think of to prevent the ukrainians getting a hold of u.s. weapons systems  .....  they are simply superior to the russian stuff.

it is, fundamentally, a war of the russian economy waged against the west, and the russian economy cannot match the assets that the west can produce, almost as an after thought.   and, if putin reads google, he has to know that the situation only gets worse for russia as time goes on.

john jay @ 06.15.2022

 

p.s.   as time goes by, as they say, certain people are going to start looking at russia's natural resources, being totally unexploited in a relative sense, with a very covetous eye.   and, certain people are going to note that russia's economy cannot devote a meaningful portion of its economy to the production of weapons and war assets.    and, there is the matter of russia's declining birth rate, and the general overall health of its citizenry. 

someone, or a consortium of someones, is someday going to take a run at russia, with conquest in mind.   and, if the west can figure out how to nullify russia's nukes, russia will face an almost certainty of invasion and attempted conquest, which it will be ill equipped to counter.  germany knew this in the 1940's, and only marshall zhukov and adolf hitler combined to save russia:  zhukov by intelligence, and hitler by being drug addled and something less than the modern day napeleon that he thought he was.  even so, it was a close thing.

russia is not well poised for long term survival in this world.   you read it here.

hoagy carmichael was something of a genius, with a very good ear .....

i am learning "star dust" on the guitar.*

the lyrics are by mitchell parish, and they are lyric, and quite beautiful.  (this is something that will never be said about "louie louie," for instance.)  but, i am especially impressed by the music for the song, written by hoagy carmichael.

the music is also very beautiful.   but, the amazing part, is that they are quite simple musically, at least the melody part.   the harmonization may be more complicated, but, it is quite outside my grasp, and so will go unremarked upon, and never learned on the piano, for instance, let alone my guitar.

and, yes, carmichael had an exceptionally good ear, and especially for sharps and flats here and there.

but, there is something quite amazing, at least for the guitar, and that is part of the genius of the song on the guitar.  mechanically, that is, the effort to reach the notes and fret them quickly and smoothly is built right in, by carmichael's exploitation of the fret board.  basically, he uses notes mostly from three adjacent strings, within a space of 4 or 5 frets, so that even someone like me can reach the strings/frets without a whole lot of fuss and bother, and exploit the octave and key in which the song is performed.

now, the sheet music i have is written in the key of "c."    but, the patterns of the notes/melody are such that my observations would be true in any key.   and, the basic pattern in "c" can be reached in other places on the key board, if a more mellow and slightly deeper tonality is desired.

i will learn that next.

now, a good and experienced guitarist could play the lyrics to "star dust" standing on his head, while eating a double cheeseburger.  perhaps even napping in spots.  it's pretty straight forward, utilizing very standard intervals between the notes and phrases.   probably to a more experienced musician, maybe even boringly simple, to someone who has played for much of his or her life.

that much is to be conceded.

but, it is exactly as i have said.   there is genius in that.   and, it is, beyond all that, enchantingly beautiful.   and, as perfect a match with the words and mood of the song as can be imagined.  no one has ever convincingly said or argued that "genius" has to be complicated and unreachable, especially when it comes to music.  some of the most haunting musical phrases consist of nothing more than about thee or four, or five or six, notes strung together in just the right sequence, and in just the right tempo.

and, hoagy carmichael delivers all of that, to a hack like me.   like i said, genius.

john jay @ 06.14.2022

 

*i have struggled learning the guitar for years, and was horrible and extremely "unaccomplished."   about three years ago i had a stroke that accompanied a heart procedure, and since then, i have taken to the guitar with an increasing enthusiasm, skill and comprehension.  i know, i know, "might bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!!" but i am picking it up quite nicely.   and, i am learning things that seemed to elude my grasp, though they seem simple, and fundamental, now.

such is life.  i am 74 years of age.

i would add that amanda tapping in a bikini is pretty simple.   about as straightforward as it gets.   and, i would argue, that it is genius.  you are free to disagree: it is, after all, a free country.  even for people who may be slightly brain dead.