1. the ukraine is winning the war, from the battlefield to war of word's in the international press. "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee."
2. zelensky is becoming a spokesman for the west, and speaks to the conscience of the west. that is, if he can survive the russian goon squads who are trying to assassinate him.
3. the russians are loosing the war at every turn, from being mauled on the ground, to staggering air losses, to having the black sea wrested from their control. they are being whipped. "multiple bee stings," which they seem incapable of escaping.
4. the ukrainians are swift, agile and very intelligent fighters, while the russians are slow, inept, plodding, and seem to have shown up for the wrong war. they do not comprehend shoulder fired guided missiles at all.
5. field intel escapes the russians, while the ukrainians appear to excel at knowing what is going on.
6. igor boris boris lenin-trotsky-stalin rootin' tootin' putin is fast becoming the goat of the war. not goat as in "g.o.a.t." as in michael jordon, but "goat" in the sense that he " ... is the dumb assed bastard" who got us into this mess. he may survive, if he can escape the russian goon squads who are trying to figure out how to assassinate him.
7. russia doesn't appear capable of winning the war, and they seem less capable with each passing day. they are swiftly loosing the war of attrition, and their capability of waging offensive war erodes with each day, with the loss of seasoned and discipline soldiers and staggering losses in weaponry and war material. after 75 days or so their logistics are still a nightmare, and their supply lines increasingly jeopardized on land and on the sea.
8. with the help and aid of the west, the ukraine grows stronger and more capable every day. they seem very quick learners as they grow more and more accomplished with western weapons.
9. "rootin tootin" putin is quite literally a "tar baby." he cannot win the war, and his capabilities diminish daily, as he wastes and squanders the "war machine" he so meticulously nurtured .... unfortunately for a "world war ii" war, and not the modern battlefield. the russians lack secure communications and control, they are grievously lacking in intelligence gathering (but having a surfeit, an abundance of thugs, murderers, and brutal torturers to anger an already aroused populace), and seem too busy looting the ukraine of appliances, tractors, and women and children to hold for ransom to pay much attention to fighting.
10. and, finally, and most importantly. and, trust me on this one. putin got into the war rather handily, but at this juncture neither he nor his generals can figure a graceful way out of it. after loosing perhaps 25,000 killed and perhaps another 50,000 wounded, after killing 10's of thousands of ukrainian civilians, including children, after destroying multiple ukrainian villages and small citizens, and raping, killing, torturing and mutilating thousands more, and generally being assholes at every turn, the world has noted.
he cannot say "oops," and go home. the world wants to prosecute him for war crimes, and his generals, and his soldiers. and, there is the little matter of reparations for the damage and destruction done by his troops and trains, and the world has noted the destrction of historical cities and landmarks, and the looting of cultural artifacts and treasures ..... if such things were not hidden or nailed down when the russians passed, they were stolen.
putin cannot win. and, he cannot afford to admit defeat, as he faces legal repercussions and financial penalties to be imposed upon his country if he looses.
11. and, finally, and most importantly. a. i think putin dies. pick a method. pick his killers. at this point, it is a parlar game.
12. and, finally, and most importantly. b. i anticipate the russians have only a limited ability to extend the fighting in the ukraine until they either just run out of steam or war material to carry on the battle, or both. at some point someone is just going to have to recognize that putin and cronies have destroyed the war machine, and bled it dry.
"success has many fathers, failure by one." when it comes time to pin the tail on the donkey for this fiasco, it is "igor boris boris lenin trotsky stalin rootin' tootin'" putin who owns the pile of steaming rotten fetid shit in the middle of the brand new ball room carpet.
13. conclusion. i give the russians another 20 plus days to start the long trudge back to their borders. they will not say "oops," or "so sorry," or "wait till next time." they will not say anything. they will just leave.
14. and, then, it will get very very very interesting. this one ain't over, not by a long shot. so to speak.
john jay @ 05.17.2022
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