summer patriot, winter soldier

if you do not have anger to your bones over what the russians are doing in ukraine ......

.....  then, your soul if not dead, is entirely numb to reality.   you breathe, but not much more than that.  quite simple, really.

john jay @ 04.23.2022

p'tin is worried about casualties in mariupol .....

mariupol still stands, a force of 2,000 to 2,500 ukrainian soldiers holed up in an industrial area resolutely refusing to surrender to the russians.  p'tin and his command had apparently considered an assault on the redoubt, but have publicly declared that no such frontal assault to reduce/eliminate the ukrainian force will take place.   instead, the russians will be content to isolate the position.

in short, the russians are conceding that an all out assault would be too costly for russia in terms of casualties and war material.  it means that the russians are taking too many casualties in the fightiing, and do not wish to incur further losses at the rate they are being inflicted on them.

in other words, the russians do not have the resources at hand to absorb such casualties.  now, p'tin has no compassion for his troops.  it simply means that he does not have enough troops to do it.  period.   the russians have apparently made a few limited gains in their much ballyhooed "eastern front offensive," but not much.

the simple fact is, the russian colossus, the juggernaut, isn't.   they haven't the forces necessary in terms of infantry and armor to simply push the ukrainians out of their positions.   the war of attrition continues to go in favor of the ukraine, and it has become a costly meat grinder to the russians.

the russian troops are laggard, undisciplined, and in a fight they don't want to be in.  the "new general" is not much different from the old general.   and, his troops are no different than the ones that took the ass-kicking in and around kiev.   the question simply reduces itself to this --  have the ukrainians enough manpower to keep killing russians by the truck load.   if they can sustain this effort, they will, in simple terms, beat the russians.

the russians cannot afford the fight.

john jay @ 04.21.2022

p.s.   p'tin is near death, and he knows it.  all that remains is for a few to coalesce and "screw their courage to the sticking point."   he has brought disgrace to russia, exposed their vulnerability, and nears having brought ruins to their ambitions for many many years.  he must go.

my carcano rifle in 8mm mauser ..... not quite a mystery .....

8mm mauser, you say, why the carcano was chambered for the 6.5mm and 7.35mm carcano cartridges, and not 8mm mauser.

well, you would be wrong, and you would be right.   right, because it was not originally, not/nor by the italians.   wrong, because as they were being evicted (ever so slowly) from italy, the germans had a bunch of carcano receivers chambered and barreled in 8mm mauser, not entirely a successful transplant.   i don't know if the wehrmacht ever used any of them, but, somehow the finns got a hold of some and used them against the russians:  they were not popular with finnish troops, who discarded them in favor of the russian mosins when they could get a hold of them.  (hint:  the russians did not hand the mosins over voluntarily.)

at any rate, i acquired a barreled action in 8mm mauser from sarco.   and, i got a bolt, magazine/trigger guard assembly, and magazines from other sources, and cobbled together a rifle.  using a surplus stock from a 1903 springfield: another story, trust me.  getting it capable of firing a cartridge proved a rather complicated undertaking, as the diameter of the german cartridge is considerably larger than the diameter of the carcano bolt face  ....   in other words, you might get an 8mm cartridge into the chamber, but you cannot make the bolt close on it.  (and, the 8mm head diameter is large than the clips that have to be used to make the rifle a repeater.)

so, i reduced the diameter of the case rim on a number of 8mm cartridge to fit in the carcano bolt face and clips, using files and a bench grinder to do so.  it was tedious work, at best ...  and, yes, i guess i have a bit of an anal personality going to all this work.

i now have a rifle in which i can load w/ the carcano clips, and which feed the reworked mauser cartridges/case rims more or less dependably working the bolt in a normal cycle.   it is best not to work the action too slow, as the nose of the bullet rises up out of the action before it even gets to the chamber, nor to work the bolt too vigously, in which case the cartridge jams with the nose of the bullet in the chamber, but no farther.  but, if the bolt is worked at a moderate speed, the thing feeds and ejects slicker than a whistle.

a friend supplied a mold in which to cast lead bullets.  and, he gave me some stuff with which to plastic coat the bullets, so that they do not foul the bore.   i have loaded some, and will shoot some, one of these days, when i can go up into the mountains and find a dirt bank, and not be suspected of trying to poach an elk or a deer.

don't worry.   the bullets are loaded to a very moderate velocity, and a very moderate pressure level.   careful is, as careful does.

do i have any reservations about the strength of the carcano action?    nope, not at all, i am simply prudent.   but, it may please you to know that frank de haas, a recognized authority on action strengths of various rifles, notes that the carcano is a very sturdy action, and quite strong, in spite of its reputation.   and, the carcano is basically a warmed over 1988 german commission rifle, which was the basis of the german model 98/40, a rifle which used the 1988 action w/ the transfusion of a german 98 magazine to ease feeding problems & logistics: it fired full power 8mm rounds.   and, the carcano is basically identical to the mannlicher schoenauer, in every respect, except that the cocking piece of the carcano is rotated 90-degrees on the bolt, to go into the left locking lug channel rather than into the split bridge  ....   nope, i don't have the foggiest notion why.   mechanically, it makes not one whit of difference.  (so say i.)  and the mannlicher schoenauer rifles fire cartridges in the 50 to 55,000 lb. pressure levels, to this day.

i'll let you know how the shooting expedition goes.  it should prove non-eventful.

john jay @ 04.19.2022

putin is afraid he'll be deposed and killed, so he wages war .....

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/04/17/exp-gps-0417-what-motivates-putin.cnn  .    this little blog post/film by cnn is really worth the watch.

the speaker, bill browder, formerly a large investor in russia, says that putin has started the war with russia to try and rehabilitate his standing with russian citizens, who are aware of his thefts from the russian treasury.   and, the thefts of his cronies.

i have posted on this, arguing that fear and paranoia are the engines that drive him.   it is well to consider that putin is surrounded by a veritable army of security people, and that he is increasingly isolated both around the world, and in his own little world of "the soviet union," which of course doesn't exist anymore except as a shell in the "russian federation."

he is afraid he will be deposed.   so, he picked a war he thought he could win.   in my view, he picked the wrong patsy, and he finds that he got way more of a genuine war than he ever conceived.   i think that if the ukrainians remain steadfast, that they will "win" this war, and will defeat putin's aim, and bring about his downfall.

and, this is, indeed, a fear that now motivates putin.

in terms of his own personal interests, if he "looses" he is dead.   and, i expect that if he "wins," he is dead, because he will have destroyed that which he coveted in gaining control of the ukraine, and it will be at a cost ultimately unacceptable to his people, and to the military which will assassinate him because he will have destroyed it.

so, yes, i think him delusional, a megalomaniac, paranoid, and ..... correct in his fears.   in my view, he is a walking dead man, and knows it.

john jay @ 04.19.2022

to ukraine .... stretch it out .... kill russians .... (bonus points for generals) ....

it's pretty simple, really.

my dear ukrainians, make this a war of attrition for the russians.  keep killing russian soldiers.   destroy tanks and nelicopters.  and, trucks.   they cannot stand to have you deplete their military.   they can neither replenish manpower nor equipment nor war material.

oddly enough, as long as you maintain your good kill ratio, you can outlast them.

nor can russia keep the full extent of their losses from their people.  even in russia, word gets around.  bombard their "net" with their losses.   and, at this point, i think it advisable to destroy assetts within their borders  ....  not deep inside russia, but still inside russia or belarus.

and, you make "bonus points" in propaganda value for killing generals.   this last one you killed was buried in st. petersburg with great pomp, ceremony and resultant publicity  ....   in milton freewater, oregon, usa i saw pictures of the funeral and flowers and read the eulogy.  (hint: m-f is in n.e. oregon, and oregon is on the pacific coast of the u.s.a.)

but to sum up .....  kill russians by the boat loads.   just continue to kill russians, and you win this war, and perhaps regain crimea.  kill russians.

john jay @ 04.19.2022

 

p.s.   and, we are getting coverage on the net, to include photos, of the sinking on moskva by your missiles, and the u.s. military confirms the sinking by your missiles.   the bullshit "cover your ass" narrative of the russians is simply not accepted, and clearly negated by facts/photos/and narrative.   sink more of the black sea fleet.

as of yet, no definitive narrative of the loss of life on the moskva, but news of that is starting to drift in via the net.  their are no secrets in this world, if one is patient.   and, thinks.   and, thinks.

another russian general killed in ukraine ..... good riddance .....

maj. general vladimir frolov, deputy commander of the russian 8th army forces in ukraine, has bit the dust.   good riddance.

generals, ahem, generally do not get killed very often in modern wars.   getting killed is for captains, and major and colonels of different strikes, but not so much even for them.   generals don't get that close to battle in modern wars, most of the time.

in less than 60 days, the russians have lost 8 or 9 generals in battle.   somewhere in there.  i've lost track, there has been so many.

this, to me, is indicative that russian troops are not enthusiastic about fighting in the ukraine, and the russians are resorting to generals being up close to the front lines flogging their reluctant men into battle.   so to speak.  reports of soldiers abandoning equipment, that sort of thing, and simply walking away from battle still surface from time to time.

you can rest assured that those who are apprehended after leaving battle, or at any other time, are subject to summary field execution for desertion.   it is the russian way.  

john jay @ 04.18.2022

mariupol illustrates "the grain of salt" caution on "situation" descriptions ....

at various time the russians say they have captured mariupol, and then it comes to light that not quite, they haven't, such as the latest announcement that the last of the ukrainian pockets of resistance have refused the russian surrender demands.

and, the ukrainian government has been exactly describing the situation there with any great degree of exactitude.

and, of course, no member of the press corps with a brain in his or her head would try to get into see the ukrainians, as they are members, and remnants, of the azov (what?   force?   platoon?  company?  regiment?) forces fighting on behalf of ukraine:  such person would be in serious jeopardy of never being seen again, at least in one piece.

so, the situation is fluid, and not very clear.--

but the last little bit i read on it was fairly precise, and said that perhaps as many as (about) 2500 of the azov's (and some women and children) are holed up on the grounds of a steel plant of some size, and that the whole area is riven with tunnels and revetments, and other places where a determined resistance to even an much greater force could be carried out with some vigor.

so, the whole "clean up" by the russians has not occurred very quickly, and likely will be some time resolving itself.   why?  well, the azov's won't attack as it would be suicidal, and the russians don't want to go in and root them out, as the azov's would exact a tremendous cost on the russians in so doing.

my guess is, they will die to the last person.   why?   well, i think they figure that if they surrender they will simply be killed anyway, summary field execution style with a pistol shot to the back of the head, so they may as well take as many russians with them as they can before they are exterminated.  (and, the last surrender demand by the russians was "surrender or die," not that that meant their surrender would have been honored before the last demand was issued.   no one will probably ever know how many people have been killed after being rendered defenseless, or being defenseless, in this war.   'tis no hyperbole to describe the russians as ruthless murderers.)

the azov's apparently number somewhere in the neighborhood of 2500 men, armed civilians and soldiers.  it would be more than just academic interest to see how many russians they take with them, but, my guess is, the russians will pay dearly for "neutralizing" them.  3 to 1, 4 to 1.

at any rate, the russians have not displayed any enthusiasm about getting them.  but, if they do not go in and root them out, my guess is the ukrainians will be making constant forays outside their encirclement to kill as many russians as they can.

it is a brutal game the two forces play, and one that will probably account for many deaths.

john jay @ 04.18.2022

p.s.   early on in this war i stated that neither side would take very many prisoners.   as it turns out, apparently there are some, and talks of trades have gone on.   they've not been fruitful.   well, in this fight to "clear" mariupol of ukrainian forces, i do not think any prisoners at all will be taken.   it is, quite literally in my estimation, a fight to the death.

that may go on for some time.

the demise of the "moskva" ... listing, and burning just under the wheelhouse ...

i had a chance to peruse some pictures on the new york post website, and they showed the moskva listing somewhat with an active fire, smoke billowing, from underneath the wheelhouse/superstructure/bridge portion of the ship.   my guess is that the engine room(s) were the source of the smoke.

the smoke was billowing from a portion of the ship that you would never suspect as housing munitions storage.  not missiles, not ammo for the deck guns  ...  not near the missile tubes much farther forward on the ship's deck, and not near any gun emplacements that i could see.

i could not see any damage to the hull, perhaps the ship had already dipped the hull damage below the waterline of the vessel, i don't know.  but it would have been painfully obvious to anyone seeing the ship in distress that she was probably going down to her watery grave.

so, i think the russian story about a fire spreading to munitions is a fabrication, a lie told out of a cocked hat, as the old saying goes.

she was struck by missile fire, or torpedoed, or something.   she was not sunk by a fire aboard the ship of an unknown origin.  imho.  (my opinions are formed from such limited observation, and power of logic, as i can muster.   i am not a naval architect.  period.)

i also read a post on the net purportedly from a witness who had had access to a hospital ward where a lot of russian soldiers were being treated for very serious burns.  if i recall correctly, the witness whoever it might have been reported that several hundred sailor (and shipboard marines ??), were in the wards he or she visited.

so, until i hear rather compelling evidence/testimony to the contrary, i am quite comfortable stating that the moskva, pride of the russian black sea fleet was sunk by ukrainian missile fire.  (it would be very nice to see the u.s. satellite images of the sinking ship, to gain a better assessment of the damages inflicted upon the ship.  and, when you think about it, when the u.s. says the moskva went down from missile fire, they would probably have very compelling reasons/facts behind that pronouncement.  compelling, indeed.)

suck that, russians.

john jay @ 04.18.2022

inflation .... pithy little statements cribbed from "forbes magazine" .....

"it is difficult to set bounds to the price unless you first set bounds to the wish."  --  cicero

"inflation is taxation without legislation."  --  milton friedman

"lenin was certainly right: there is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency."  --  john maynard keynes        [in bold letters, on a.o.c.'s bathroom wall: stated as a goal.  iho.]

"pile up that gold around my head.  i must take it with me to pay the ferryman."  --  tom holt

"inflation consists of subsidizing expenditures that give no returns with money that does not exist."  --  jacques rueff

april/may 2022 forbes magazine.  

i don't particularly like the magazine, my two brothers buy it for me in hopes that it will inspire some desire on my part to accumulate money, instead of dissipating it.  (that, i am good at.)   but, the last page of each issue has some pithy quotes, usually pretty pointed, and they were "right on" this last month.  and, the other day i came across another one, "inflation is cutting money in half without marring the paper," or something along that line.   i cannot remember who said it, and i cannot remember the source.  oh, well.  it's true enough.

john jay @ 04.18.2022

"the west is weak" .... "the west is too strong, and gives ukraine weapons that kill us" .... don't the russian people note the contradiction?

in the ramp up to his war p'tin told the russian people that it would be risk free, because the west was to morally weak and dissipated to counter russian actions in the ukraine.

well, p'tin amassed an invasion force 200,000 strong with tanks, and armored troop carriers, and tracked artillery, gathered it at the border of ukraine and tried to intimidate ukraine to surrender, and surrender its sovereignty to russia.   he also threatened the west with dire consequences if it interfered in his private little war.

ukraine did not surrender.  russia invaded.   and in ensuing days, weeks and months, has got its arrogant ass kicked all over the place.

and, the west has interfered.   not directly, as ukraine is not a member of n.a.t.o.     but, the n.a.t.o. states has supplied the ukrainians with training, and technical assistance, and an entire array of sophisticated weapons, principally anti-tank missiles from the u.s. and great britain, and ground to air missile systems & missiles from the united states.

now, the russians are fulminating that the supposedly weak west is proving too strong, and that it is "militarizing" the state of ukraine in a dangerous and provocative fashion.    and, always, always, the "saber rattling" of the threat of nuclear weapons.

all of this is well known to anyone reading this, and countless like columns and blog posts and net articles on the conduct of the war, and the verbal war of words accompanying it.  old hat to most of you.   and, typical bullshit from the russians, who know no other speechifying than bloviating.   and, blowing hot air out their asses.   (they are pompous arrogant shits, are they not?   laughing.)

old, old, old joke.  how do you bury a 6'8" 270 lb. russian?   well, you drain the shit out of him, and bury him in a shoe box, that's how.  sorry, i couldn't resist, under the circumstances.

so, my question is, don't the russian people notice the contradictions issuing forth from 'tin and his coterie of henchmen, "great" and small?   first, they reassure the russian people that overrunning ukraine will not even raise a sweat for russian military forces.   and, that the west is too scaredypants to do anything about it.

then, the ukrainians kick the snot out of 'tin's troops, and 'tin' and his henchmen are crying and moaning about n.a.t.o. weapons and western interference making things unfair for the russians.   "we don't get to overrun countries like we would like to, and it is unfair that the west confronts us and prevents us from doing so.   we are in wwiii.   and, it is big fat powerful n.a.t.o.'s fault.  nukes.  nukes.   nukes."

first the west is morally and physically weak, and a bunch of cowards, afraid to confront russia or thwart its plans.   and, then, the failures of the russian military and 'tin's politics are blamed upon the overwhelming strength of the west, and by god they better watch out, or they will face the wrath of 'tin' and his nukes.

if i were a russian watching all of this, and seeing my countrymen being killed by the truck loads, i would conclude that v. 'tin' is an idiot, moron and a no-good shitnik.   simple as that.   and, i expect a good number of people in russia see that.

the question is.   does p'tin?   and, does he care?   and, is he breeding a very large scab on the end of his nose?

i think he is.   and, i think we are gonna have to toast him.

we shall see.

john jay @ 04.17.2022