summer patriot, winter soldier

russia is beaten, and cannot win ..... one question remains .....

russia is beaten, and cannot win as her military lies in tatters.  her infantry and armor are limited only to the static defense of occupied territories, and will be in all probability ejected from the ukraine by the time winter rolls around.***  her air force is without bite, and her navy, negligible at the start of hostilities is now reduced to hiding in the far recesses of the black sea, with no possibility of becoming stronger ...  which option shall close in pretty quick order.

russia lacks the industrial base (and money) to do anything about this in the near short term, and, indeed, will require a decade or more to rebuild her conventional military.***  and this "projection" is optimistic.

there remains one open question.--

does the ukraine have the ability to deliver a decisive death blow to the russian invasion this calendar year?  i believe she does, but, not without casualties.  will she undertake the necessary actions, accompanied by the requisite costs in lives and material, becomes the sole question.

john jay @ 07.10.2023

p.s.  russia is naked to chinese aggression, nearly defenseless at her borders, and a concerted & combined effort by china, mongolia, and the former --stans (if they can figure out how to divide the spoils) could easily gobble up several time zones of her territories.  the chinese now do not respect russian "power", nor russian leadership.   hey, putin must die, to restore ties to china, and territorial concessions made.  simple as that.

***  right now, russia does not manufacture main battle tanks in any needed magnitude to replenish losses in the ukraine.

***  western pundits poo poo ukrainian advances against russian defenses, being dissatisfied with any showing less than the karkiv campaign.  they are blind to the gains the ukraine has made in the last several months and the fact that ukraine kills russians at a prodigious rate.  western pundits, for the most part, are excitable twits.

and, i expect them to be ejected from the ukraine by the time the snow flies and the ground is frozen.

 

 

 

 

 

***  or upon putin's death at the hands of his "friends" in russia, and a withdrawal of forces upon the pretext of "diplomacy."

russia has attacked sweden ..... this is not the time to have the imbecile biden as president of the united states .....

russia has attacked an industrial plant within the territorial confines of sweden.  the russians told the swedes that it was a " ... legitimate target ... " during war, so they attacked it.   this rather beggers the question as to who precisely is to make such a decision, but the russians seem to be of the mind that they can attack anyone they damn well please.

first the ukraine.   now sweden.   who is next?

let me make my point right now.--  this is not the time to have the imbecile joe biden as president of the united states.  i am, furthermore, of the opinion that the reason the russians felt emboldened to attack sweden was precisely because the imbecile biden is president of the united states, and they are of the opinion that biden and his brain trust simply aren't up to doing very much about it.

this is the price to be paid for having an idiot for president, and this is precisely the price to be paid for having a voting public who are in the main idiots, and this is the price to be paid for allowing the democrats to get away with stealing elections from those who have rightfully won them.

there is, in short, a price for every act of stupidity, whether on the part of individuals, or a public not jealous of its liberties, and quiescent in the presence of the theft of same.

the democrats are run by imbeciles.  joe biden.  senator fettermen.   senator feinstein.   all brain dead.   patty murray, an idiot.  kamala harris, an indiot.  and, the four chinned wonder himself, mitch mcconnell, an idiot of the first order, and a fat homely bastard to boot. 

we are in a boat load of trouble with the world on the brink of world war iii, and our republic run by thieves, crooks, and idiots.  cabals are one thing, but cabals run by idiots are fatal.

chowder heads will not get us through the times that lie before us.  it is as simple as that.  we must get shed of these imbeciles and nincompoops who run our nation.   and, quickly.

john jay @ 08.16.2023

query:  have we a zelensky in the house?

russia just started world war iii ..... it has attacked a ball bearing factory in sweden .....

n.a.t.o. is now directly involved, and it must react to this provocation.   and, of course, the swedes do not have the option of sitting back and doing nothing .....  they must react to this provocation, to this act of war.

putin has confirmed that he is absolutely insane, deluded to an extent that is hard to comprehend.   the ruble is crashing.  china thinks he is insane.   his troops are panicking in retreat in parts of the ukraine.

whatever possessed the dumb bastard to attack sweden is purely a matter of conjecture at this point.   to attack sweden is an act of war.  period.

n.a.t.o. must react.  sweden must react.

john jay @ 08.16.2023

the ukraine is achieving its goals in the war to kill & eject the russian occupiers ....

the ukraine is achieving its goals in the war to kill and eject the russian occupiers. 

what objective, indisputable, proof do i have of that?

smiles.  lots of smile.  very few frowns and looks of frustration.  (those latter have all but disappeared from the faces of the ukrainians.)

smiles.

consider what it takes to muster a smile in war.  the ukrainians are not suffering from dis-associative disorders generating those smiles.   they smile, because they continue to kill russian soldiers and destroy russian weapons and equipment, and they are advancing against the russian lines and reclaiming territory held by the occupiers. 

simple as that.   and, the results?

smiles.  lots of smiles.***

john jay @ 08.15.2023

 

*** is there a "metric" for this analysis.  (anything constituting "science," or "learned opinion.")  beats the hell out of me.   but, pray consider  ....   when was the last time you saw the dyspeptic dictator smile, when considering the ukraine?   eh?

oh, he's a big shot when he kicks a hopeless russian widow and her hungry children around, ... , but, hardly anywhere else in the world.  his stock there has gone down, just like the ruble, and the chinese went to a peace conference that russia did not attend.   moreover, the chinese did not object to any news or resolutions coming out of that conference.  they are about ready to dump putin as an "ally," simply because he has so little worth.

putin is now a lonely, isolated, nearly irrelevant little dictator.  no smiles.  and, none forthcoming, in all likelihood.

the "dead" allman's ..... great w/ guitarist, not so great w/ motorcycles .....

the allman brother's band* was simply one of the best.  ever.  they left behind two of southern rock's most enduring songs, "jessica" and (i was born a) "ramblin' man."  not many rock and roll compositions were as well thought out, and damned few were ever played with such a relentless drive.  absolute pleasure to listen to.

now, if only they had not taken up motorcycling.  sigh   that, they weren't so good at.

john jay @ 08.11.2023

 

*duane allman, gregg allman, dickey betts, berry oakley, butch trucks, and "others."

 

u of o, u dub, will come crawling back, hat in hand, to the old pac-12 ..... after being treated like homely stepchildren in the big 10 .....

" ... crawling, hat in hand ... "    now, there's an image.  hard to do, crawl carrying a hat.   and, tough on hats.   well, be that as it may.--

the ducks and the dawgs think they've hit the big time.  maybe so, maybe so, but, i don't think that they are going to get the institutional respect they expect in "their" new conference.  they are going to be looked down on, patronized, and treated like interlopers, which, in fact, they are.   ohio state, michigan, michigan state, and wisconsin are gonna jump all over them.   northwestern, will look down on them.  and, my good lord, they are gonna get chewed up and spit out in hoops ...  big ten basketball is not for the faint of heart.

re: basketball.   yes, i know several years ago the pac-12 had 3 teams in the final 8 of the ncaa's.  but, they were finess/skill type teams, not thugs bent on harm as in the big 10.  but, in the big 10, it is a scrape every game, and the home crowds are viscous: it will wear on them.   and, can you imagine, going into the midwest a couple weeks in a row, to play ohio state, indiana, and teams of that ilk.  their better put on the snug jock straps, hitch up their big boy pants, and put the elbow pads on when they play these people.  and, get good dentists lined up for the off season.

the pac-12 was a nice cozy friendly little conference, very gentlemanly and easy going, and they are not gonna find that back east.  they will not like it.  and, oh lordie, the beating that usc and ucla will take getting up to speed.  no "hollywood" in the corn belt.

i give them 4 or 5 years, and they will want to be back on the west coast. 

we shall see.

john jay @ 08.11.2023

the new "norther tier" conference ..... oregon state, washington state, eastern washington state, boise state, north dakota state, montana, montana state, south dakota state, , u of idaho, utah state, san diego state, san jose state ....

from out of the ashes of the pac-12 a new conference comprised of schools along the northern tier of the west, with a couple california schools thrown in for good measure.   these schools have good football programs, and, more importantly in a way, good baseball and wrestling programs, and not too bad in track and field, as well.

update, 08.12.2023.    the more i think about it, the less i like the idea of san diego state and san jose state in "my" new pac-12 conference.  it has nothing to do with the schools, it is just i don't like the idea of any schools from california, especially southern california, in the conference.   california schools tend to have all the morals of civet cats in heat.  so much for that.

i have done a bit head scratching, and i rather like the idea of weber state gettiing into the mix.  it would be a very good mix with utah state.   and, i think the air force academy would be a good fit.   they have been known to produce some pretty good teams from time to time, and i would expect that they would continue to run a pretty tight ship (there's a mixed metaphor in there somewhere, eh?).

end update. 

not a "snob school" in the bunch.   scheduling and travel should be relatively straight forward, especially compared to the big 10 and the big 12.

to my mind, this makes more sense than trying to fit oregon state and washington state into the big 10, or the acc (does anyone recognize the implications of "atlantic coast" in terms of travel, or culture?), or even the big 12.

second update of the day, 08.12.2023.  btw, anything prohibiting a conference w/ fbs and fcs members.  or, from playing an entirely mixed schedule with each other, and other fcs schools.   all i know is that north dakota state and south dakota state have been playing, and beating, fbs schools for years.   it seems a good idea to me  ...  hey, why not?  end update.

no, it will not be a "big time" power 5 conference like the ones who are crowding everyone else out of the t.v. revenues at stake, but, who gives a shit.   old time rivalries will be preserved, and i for one would relish the prospect of oregon state and washington state going head to head with the likes of north dakota state, south dakota state, and boise state every year.  there are the makings of classic rivalries in that mix.

who needs the inflated egos of oregon and washington, anyhow?***  i won't miss them for 2 seconds.

john jay @ 08.10.2023

*** i expect that oregon and washington will tire of being treated like poor step-children in the big 10, and will come crawling back to the west coast when the t.v. revenues dry up, as they will.  after all, every "mama's whore house" that ever held a gala opening was broke in a short number of years, anyhow.  the novelty trade always wears out in pretty short order.

 

the super athletic conferences, how are they gonna be able to afford the travel .....

i see several problems with the "super"athletic conferences now forming up.

they are transcontinental, absolutely huge in geographic terms.

1.  how can the universities afford the travel?  2.  how can the students take this much time off of their classroom responsibilities? 3.  and, if we thought the transfer portal nonsense was nonsense to this point, how is it gonna be controlled at all w/ conferences being so huge, and the exposure good players will have?  4.  recruitment.  it's bad now, and it is only gonna get worse.

the other thing is, this whole business of sport has become ridiculously overblown, and contributing to more and more spoiled brats with large egos.  why learn history or physics if you can make money being a mediocre offensive tackle.

finally, these conferences are gonna make an absolute hash out of state and regional rivalries.  for instance, i used to be an oregon ducks fan, and nothing brought a sense of satisfaction like beating the u of washington huskies, or the accursed u.s.c. trojans.  it was always so sweet to beat the assholes from southern california.  now, all of that is gone.

i will take no pleasure in the oregon state beavers beating, or pain in loosing to, the washington state cougars.   i like the cougs  ...   no pleasure in beating them, no pain in loosing to nice people.  there is just gonna be absolutely no "class warfare" in college sport.   who cares about what happens in wisconsin?   or, ohio?

i don't think the whole mess will last very long.   it will collapse on its own weight, and the public's indifference to the contests and/or their outcome.  but, in the meantime, a lot of fun and anticipation will be destroyed, perhaps never to be restored.

john jay @ 08.09.2023

oh, what a goose i am ..... more on oregon state, wazzu, looking for homes on the demise of the pac 12 .....

i have proposed that washington state and oregon state find their fortunes in "the northern tier" of america, aligning with the likes of the montana schools, and the dakota's.   i still like the idea.

football.  but, what a goose i am, i forgot all about boise state, idaho and the likes of utah state.   there would be some good football found in these places, as well, and between universities with like missions and purpose.

oregon state, washington state, eastern washington state, boise state, idaho, montana, montana state, north dakota state, south dakota state.  those are 10 solid schools, with good programs.  a very good conference.  throw in games w/ san diego state, san jose state, and you have some games of interest.   and, not an elite effete snob of a university among them.

basketball. & baseball.  osu and wsu should maintain schedules with the likes of .....  double ugh!!  .....  uw and uo, and stanford and cal, along with other traditional rivalries.  as for the rest of it, they could pursue the sports as independents.

track & field.   well, you cannot have everything.

john jay @ 08.09.2022

the demise of the pac-12 ..... if oregon state and washington state have brains in their heads .....

again, my thoughts on the demise of the pac-12, and what oregon state and washington state should do after being left in the lurch by the elitist fucks from the old pac-12, to include oregon and washington.--

i've said it once, i will say it again.  in the context of college football, the beavs and the cougs should either seek affiliation with the likes of san jose state, san diego state, ... , yada yada yada, ... , or should seek a sort of hybridized relationship with the big sky, and the missouri conference teams in the northern sections/tiers of those conferences.   that would find them competing with the likes of eastern washington state, montana and montana state, north dakato state, south dakato state, and the other more powerful teams from those conferences.

there is cultural and education affinity with those schools, both in terms of small cozy communities in which the campuses are found, and the educational mission of a lot of the western "moo u's", which have a definite rural and agricultural role in their states.  osu has long been known as "silo tech," and is strongly associated with agriculture and the exploration and exploitation of ocean resources.   washington state is in the middle of washington's great palouse country, nestled in a little valley amidst oceans of grain and produce.  montana, montana state and the dakota schools all share similar educational missions, and also include mining, mineral and oil exploration.

it is a good fit.   for all.   good solid educational systems, with an appropriate mission in life, and that being the betterment and improvement of the responsible harvest of our resources.   and, not to belabor a point already made, it would rid the universities involved in having to deal with the elitist fucks of the like of usc, ucla, and the arizona pretenders.

in basketball, ... , well, i have to eat my words a little bit, because there are few schools as heavily populated with elitist fucks as stanford and cal, but they do play a good brand of basketball, and osu and wsu could easily perpetuate their competitive relationships with the god damned ducks and the uw huskies.   and, the schools of the big sky play good ball, as do the dakota's on occasion.

how do i know this is a good plan?

because the idiots at osu and wsu haven't pursued these issues, and solutions to the problems presented by the collapse of the pac-12.   they just never saw it coming.   well, it has happened, and now is the time to figure out how to deal with it.

john jay @ 08.09.2023

ivan ivan ivanovich, the dumbest russian of them all .....

even ivan ivan ivanovich, the dumbest russian of them all, the dumbest of the dumb, senses, knows, that something is not right in the ukraine, that russia does not fare well in the ukraine, and that even as we speak, things go boom! in moscow, st. petersburg and the hinterlands.

death notices and gravestones, everywhere.  putin's cronies take flight lessons from 8th story balconies.   beautiful daughters of billionaires die.  and, everywhere, the news of the dead.  it is reported that melitopol, the stench of death wafts from the portable crematoriums the russian military has rushed in to process the dead soldiers.  ships are sunk in the black sea.   helicopters, the precious helicopters are shot from the sky.

and, the pride of russia, the main battle tanks, are "killed" by the score.   and, everywhere, there is news of death.

and, even ivan ivan ivanovich, the dumbest son of a bitch in all the land, the dumbest of the russians, remembers that this is not the way that putin said it would happen.

and, now the propagandists are saying that 284,000 russians have died in the ukraine, and double or triple that amount are wounded and injured.   criminals launch a tank column at moscow, ... , russian criminals advance on the russian capital, in russian tanks.  this is not the way that putin said it would happen.  why is putin not stopping these calamities?

it is a disquieting world for ivan ivan ivanovich, ... , who just may be beginning to wise up.

john jay @ 08.08.2023