on or before the 15th of this month russian forces attempted a crossing of the donet's river via laying several pontoon bridges across it. ukrainian artillery was in position to oppose the crossing, and laid waste to russian troops and equipment, this being photographed and recorded apparently by russian drones.
the photos show the destroyed pontoon bridges, one of them appearing capable of ferrying heavy equipment, and numerous destroyed armored vehicles. they lie, some sections afloat, others sunken in the river's waters the armored vehicles appeared lined along the river's edge, in defensive positions, apparently so arrayed to defend against ukrainian infantry assault.
the news of this has been spread throughout russia on computer nets, by pro-russian military bloggers no longer possessing the stomach to lie and conceal the magnitude of russain ineptness in the war they started, and begged. the new york times has a lengthy article on this, to include statements by the bloggers attacking the russian command.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/world/europe/pro=russian-war-bloggers-kremlin-html
authors: anton troianovski and marc santora.
i'll not recapitulate the article, you can go there and read it yourself. (caution: not a hot link, you'll just have to manage.)
but, several aspects of the russian "operation" are not mentioned, and are worthy of consideration.--
it is worth noting that the military analysts available to the times estimate that close to 500 russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the operation, and that a thousand or more were estimated to have been involved in the attempted push across the river. these soldiers had apparently massed near the bridge in anticipation of crossing the river on the bridges.
the ukrainians were waiting, and when they began their artillery attacks on the bridge, the russian soldiers waiting to go across, and the armore waiting to cross, all came under fire apparently at the same time. now, either the ukrainians were very lucky to have just the right artillery there to protect the river defenses, or they had somehow got wind of the attempted assault, and had time to marshall their forces for what appears to have been a perfect defense to the crossing.
and, it must be considered, apparently the russians had absolutely no idea that the ukrainians lay in wait for them. they apparently had no inkling, from the lowliest soldier to the highest ranking commanders, that their slaughter awaited them. for the ukrainians, a triumph of intelligence gathering and quick tactical/strategic reaction by their forces, and for the russians an absolute debacle. not the first for them, but a repeat of their ineptitude during the entire war.
that much is clear.
but, another factor emerges, perhaps not so clear.
and, that is, the russians simply do not have the manpower to carry out an invasion of a well-armed and very determined adversary. they simply do not "have the ponies" to mount effective assaults agains dug in troops manning well designed defenses. and, as in the defense of kiev, the ukrainians are not going to be drawn out from those defenses, but are going to stay in them, and kill russians by the truckloads are they attempt to breach them. a clever strategy, and one which has borne fruit for the ukrainians. many times.
o.k. getting across rivers and mountains and wide open plains requires more that a small concentration of troops on a small target. it requires a whole lot of troops over a broad front, a breach of the defenses at some point along that front, and then the ability to react quickly and pour forces through that breach and exploiting the breach. if you try the small operation, and you get whacked attempting it, there you are. as the russians have just demonstrated.
the fact is, they do not have the manpower nor the material resources needed to carry on a broad front operation. and, they are not going to have it anytime soon, as the ukrainians have destroyed any strategic wherewithal they may have had at the start of the war. if they had that capability, and that is open to examination, they sure as hell do not have it norrrrw.
the russians have lost this war.
putin and brethren know that. (if i can figure that out, he/they can.) the issue before them now is how to get out of it, without having serious "egg on their faces," and with being deposed and shot. mr. zelensky and his command staff also know it, witness mr. zelensky's assertion that there will be no "cease fire" until the russians withdraw out of ukraine.
i have long said that putin was going to be "suicided" over this war, and i know suspect that he will die on the operating table. same process.
john jay @ 05.16.2022
p.s. go to the times article. they have a wonderful aerial picture of the destruction wrought on the soviet infantry and armor. they got the living shit kicked out of them. simply put.
p.s.s. one wonders why they did not utilize their armored personnel carriers in this river crossing, as, after all, they are designed to float and carry troops across water. is it because they have none left, the lightly armored vehicles having proved exceedingly susceptible to attack from stinger missiles. and, the lack of such vehicles in the attempted river crossing just shows, one more time, that the russians "lack the ponies" to carry out such an operation, or to provide artillery support and/or adequate air cover for it.