summer patriot, winter soldier

the ineluctable truth of global warming .....

the premise of global warming theory is that pollutants produced by and in the service of man are causing the temperature of the world to rise at alarming rates.

(personally, i find most "research" and "thought" along this line more religious conviction in search of supporting facts, than anything else.  sort of a marxist politics/urban theatre covered in greasepaint.  but, that is apparently just me.   so, for purposes of this very short essay, consider global warming a "scientific fact.")

assume "global warming" as caused by man, therefore, a verity.

any rigorous & disciplined thought on the matter comes face to face with one ineluctable fact, a truth if you will.  a truth that is being ignored by the doomsday soothsayers of global warming.  and, that is, the human population explosion is the root cause of global warming.

it is human population growth the fuels the fire of carbon combustion and therefore emission.  human population growth is the driving force of global warming.  as with most truth, it is simple as that.

any and all measures to decrease global warming are meaningless without reducing population.  this truth is the big foreboding presence brooding in the corner at an otherwise gala event.

without addressing this truth, all pronouncements on the subject are mere posturing, entertaining the rubes, as it were.  or, more simply put, ... , lying.

john jay @ 06.29.2022

 

ineluctable and inextricable update, 07.01.2022 .   it follows, therefore, as night the day, if we accept the above logic, that there are only two alternate paths to reduce the pollution "causing" global warming:  1.)reduce the levels of production of pollutants, or 2.) reduce the human population, thereby decreasing the demand for, production of and consumption of those things causing global warming.***

o.k., who is gonna be the first to go, as it is doubtful humans will suddenly become less avaricious?    and, just who or what will send them on their way in the service of mankind?

pestilence, war and famine used to rather admirably perform these functions, in a gender neutral and almost ethically & moral fashion (notice the word "almost" ) in the days before the hopeless muddle of genetic & social engineering.   those "halcyon" days are gone.

suggestions, anyone?"  sun screen?   end update. 

 

*** i believe this covered in several early iterations of "star trek" .

 

 

 

zelensky says that around 58,000 russian soldiers have been killed in around 7 months of fighting .....

just before russia began this little misadventure, she claimed 130,000 troops or so poised on the ukrainian border, before invading.   putin also said there was to be no invasion, before invading.   further cementing his reputation as one of the biggest lying bastards on the face of the earth, after he began the invasion.

the russians thus far have admitted to around 7,000 war dead.   further cementing their reputations as ..... , well, you get the picture.  they are simply lying bastards.   start, middle, finish.

be that issue (the accuracy of the russian war dead) as it may, the russian soldier has borne the burden of serving putin's ambitions, and putin has not.    and, now he wants more russians to go to the ukraine, to most certainly for some of them to become more russian war dead.   by doing so, he is doing everything he can to "salvage something" out of this whole mess, so that the war doesn't kill him, as well.***

i tend to believe zelensky is more accurate in his assessment of the russian war dead than russian statements to the contrary.  that means, more or less, that of the 130,000 russian soldiers who invaded ukraine, just under 1/2 of them have met their deaths there, as a result of the ineptness of their commanders and of putin.

58,000 out of 130,000  .....   that's a lot of russian stupid.

the russian army has exhausted, wasted, its most advanced ordnance and weapons.   they are almost out of missiles used as artillery, and smart weapons, and guided munitions, if western analysts are to be believed.  pretty soon, they will have nothing left but "dumb weapons," which is more or less fitting considering how dumb the use of the other stuff has been.

the ukrainians have killed their best main battle tanks, and they are now scrapping up old t-62 tanks to replace the t-72's & 70's that the ukrainians have destroyed.   in short, they are out of their main line battle tanks.  gone.   kaput.   turned into scrap.   i believe it quite likely that the ukrainians now have more captured t-72's and 90's than the russians have.

more importantly, (to everyone except v. putin), the russians do not have trained crews for their tanks, and certainly no one adequately trained to contend with the emerging ukrainian battle doctrine on how to destroy massed armor.   the russians would do about as well to simply pat their tank crews on the butts, point them generally in the direction of the ukrainian forces, and tell them, "go get 'em."   in other words, any russian who goes out in a t-62 to do battle w/ the ukraine, is just another dead russian, ready to be killed by any number of exotic weapons he never thought possible.

other russian armored vehicles?  rattling smoke belching coffins, that's what.

the russian air force?    what russian air force?

so, in sum, putin has thus far killed 58,000 of his countrymen.   and, "accounted for" about twice that many wounded and/or injured.

and, he means to kill more.  he means to kill russians until his ambitions, however shadowy and incomprehensible they may be, are satisfied.   and, specifically, when and if the russians actually prevail in this war, what will have been gained?   they will have destroyed ukraine to possess ukraine.   their economy is headed to oblivion.   and, they will sell no more gas nor other energy product to europe, because someone is destroying the gas pipelines carrying the gas to european markets, and will no doubt attack their other sources/access to valuable currency.   putin is destroying that for which he lusted, and what putiin has not destroyed, the ukrainians will destroy.

he is an idiot.   and, russians are idiots for following and obeying him to their doom.   and, idiots for not killing the bastard before he brings ruination upon every last one of them.

58,000 dead russians because of this war, and the one russian who needs killing still draws breath.   put plainly, putin needs to be exterminated, like any other noxious bug.   and, his death needs to be a certainty, proof of his death absolute.   so that he cannot come back to haunt russia some more.

john jay @ 09.27.2022

***  i firmly believe that it has already killed him, or, more precisely, the lying bastard has already killed himself.   it is painfully obvious that he is looking for a way out to preserve whatever reputation that he has (now, that is a major laugh!!), and to save face for being badly beaten.   thugs are like that when they get righteously whipped.

i have never bought a fender guitar, strictly speaking .....

not strictly speaking.

but, of the various guitars which have passed through my hands, at least five or six of them were "fenders," in the sense that they were "fender" "knock offs," that is, copies that were very faithful to the fender way of doing things.  several of them were almost exact copies of the fender, while other were clearly fender inspired, if not direct copies.

the fender head stock is iconic, both because it looks kinda cool, and it is very user friendly in its layout.    it makes sense, and works well.   and, the style of the fender strat is probably the most copied design of any guitar ever made, and the tele has also inspired a lot of guitar designs.   the through-body stringing is simple, leads to a very simple bridge layout 9which works), and also contributes to a relative ease in getting the strings down low to the frets so you don't have to push for a month to fret the string.

and, there is the matter of the maple necks.  fender necks are simple, maple, strong and they stay stable.

the last guitar that i will ever purchase is an ibanez, and "inspired" by the fender tele in layout and tone.   it follows the fender pattern of being painted, and in this case it is a chris miller autograph model last made in 2014, and painted in "antique ivory" with a pale canned pea green trim, ... , and, just gorgeous to my eye.   they were made by ibanez in 2013 and 2014, and that was it for the model "cmm1" (and "cmm1-4", if i am not mistaken.)   the original price sticker on mine was dated 1-21-15, and the guitar sat on the shelves for 7 years before i got it  ...  why, is a mystery to me.

it's got a p.a.f. single coil pickup on the neck, and a humbucker of some sort at the bridge, which i suspect is an ibanez model 58 or 59 humbucker, with a split coil tone control on the bucker.   it has a wonderful mellow tone, which can get pretty raunchy with a strong attack on the strings.   it sounds wonderful, the strings are low, and it just has a very pretty tone.   did i mention that?   laughing.

so, my ibanez is the last fender i buy.  it's that good a player, and a pretty guitar.

while imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, you'd think that fender, and gibson, would get tired of being copied so often.    and, that it would hurt their sales/business.   (i've had gibsons, and they are wonderful, and i've had ibanez's which have copied them, and though the ibby's have been good, they haven't been as good at the gibby's, both of which were stellar.)***    from an entirely selfish standpoint, i don't mind that others copy the gibson & fenders, because i can almost afford the knockoffs, while the originals are just too expensive.    and, i am no musical prodigy, so i don't really deserve to play the best of the best.

the question arises, how does fender do it?

well, leo fender was a bit of a manufacturing genius, as least as pertains to guitars.  his bolt on necks and solid bodies made for easy & repeatable construction, and avoided the risks and cost of fabricating fitted and hand joined necks.  and, the bolt on neck is marvelously strong, and rigid:  lots of triangulation is that 4-bolt pattern.  his use of cheap (& plentiful) automotive paints, eschewing expensive to fabricate & apply stains, avoid high finish costs.   the through-body stringing also made fabrication quick, and sure.   and, cheap.

and, oh, yeah, the guitars sound just right, and are flexible enough to play almost any kind of music, and robust enough to support any style of playing.

but, i'll not buy another guitar.   the ibby is the guitar of my dreams, and it doesn't hurt that it is so damned pretty.  (i won't live long enough to have many more dreams, especially guitars.)

john jay @ 09.27.2022

*** the expensive and fancy guitars didn't last, because they were casualties of the various economic, health & domestic reversals i have experienced, being sold off to good homes to raise money.   hey, that is the way "she goes" sometimes.   life is like that.  some ups, some downs.

an interesting news morning, stories indicating putin's rule is very tenuous, and china's xi to be in big trouble, and not seen for days .....

as to putin, he's loosing his war (he "owns" it, totally), and he has very little way to fob the loss off onto someone else in russia.   russia is rocked by riots and calls for putin's ouster, and that is just not the normal way of things for russian dictators.  or, for russia, for that matter.

in the ukraine, ukrainian forces are getting very close to forcing russia's ouster.   except, that is, for russian forces in the crimea.  as to crimea, the russian presence there is not a given, as the "garrison" there is showing signs of incipient "feets don't fail me now" as things turn to poop all around them.

if the ukraine takes back control of luhansk oblast & city, and severs the logistics/supply lines to kherson and crimea, things will look pretty dour, indeed, for putin.   i expect to see him dead, and he has fled moscow for his private retreat, all the while prominent supporters are dropping like flies, oddly enough, in stairwells and the like, and rather unexpectedly.   little hints, making big thuds, as they hit the floor.

we'll know, more or less, by thursday.   that's when putin is scheduled to be "back in town."

as to xi, no one has seen him in a bit, and the news people are saying that china is alive with intrigue and threats directed to xi.   this is also not the normal way of things being done in china.

xi is not involved in any idiotic wars, at least for the moment, but china's economy is doing poorly and headed for the same recession/depression that russia is falling into.   at least the russians can partially blame western europe and the u.s. for the harm to its economy caused by the sanctions over the war in ukraine, but xi has no one to fob the economic woes besetting china onto anyone else.   xi's rule, and his life, apparently, are in some serious jeopardy.

who knows?   maybe both of them end up in cuba, or venezuela, with a nice comfortable flat and their favorite dogs to keep them comfy.

as i consider this, i don't think i've seen the present situation (russian and chinese dictators in trouble at the same time) in my lifetime.   and, i've never seen the rumors/news/events happening so openly.  (lots of yapping by excited dogs, that's for sure.)   it's all pretty amazing, and a bit hard to digest and comprehend.

hang onto your hats.

john jay @  09.27.2022

p.s.   as to china, who knew?   who ever knows.

as to russia, the events are entirely explicable and expected.  (except the riots, ... , that is damned "novel.")  putin's war is an embarrassment to russia, and putin has no way out of it, and no way to avoid the stigma of "loser."   this is a bad situation for an "all powerful" tyrant.

i expect him "dead," anytime soon.

what are those cagey ukrainians up to?

everybody seems to think the focus of the war, both the ukrainian attacks and the russian defense, to have shifted to the kherson region.--

i am not so sure.

it appears to me that ukraine continues to push east from karkiv, advancing almost to the western borders of the luhansk oblast.   that's a pretty extensive advance against the russian forces.  indeed, if the ukraine advances into the luhansk, perhaps to the extent of taking luhansk city itself, at some point they come pretty close to severing the links of russian logistics and shipping as significant as taking kherson.

indeed, if the ukrainians can move southward in the luhansk, at some point the donetsk oblast and donetsk city come under attack, almost by necessity, because if that occurs, there is very little of the ukraine that the russians will occupy and/or control.

is this the ukrainian intent?   i don't think it can be automatically eliminated, or discounted.   remember, the ukraine pinned russian troops in kherson in order to be able to attack kherson without being interfered with by the russians.   perhaps they have decided that such strategy worked so well, they will simply continue to pin the russians in kherson, and come at them through donetsk and luhansk.

why not?

yes, if they move west along the black sea to kherson, they will have to protect their rear from russian attacks from the east.   against a very competent and responsive opponent, this would be very difficult, and expose them to the very serious risk of encirclement. 

but, the one thing that the russians have exposed as a major weakness in the ukraine war, is their inability to do anything very quickly, let alone moving troops and deploying them anywhere, very quickly.  if the ukraine reaches the black sea in donetsk or luhansky, and the russians attempt to attack from the rear or to encircle, and the ukraine's forces are exposed, i would expect them to be able to scamper out of harms way in an instant, militarily speaking.   simply put, i don't think the russians are capable of moving quickly enough to trap or encircle ukrainian forces.

and, if that might occur, in some manner that escapes me, i think the ukraine able to just fight their way out of any such situation.   the russians do not have enough troops in ukraine to prevent it, nor will they be likely to have sufficient numbers to do so any time soon.

so, as long as ukraine can chew up territory eastward from kharkiv as they have been doing, i think they will simply continue to do so, and that if the opportunity arises that they think they can retake donetsk and luhansk, i think they will simply do so, and attack kherson from the east, moving westward.

in any event, the importance to the ukraine is not necessarily taking a city named this or that, but in cutting the russian supply and logistics line to kherson and the crimea.   what difference does it make if they do it around kherson, or further to the east.   either way, it puts the crimea in their reach, and it makes the russian presence in the south of their country so tenuous as to be untenable.  

simple as that.

john jay @ 09.26.2022

p.s.  oh, if they just had some a-10's to take care of russian armored columns.   i think w/ a-10's in their possession and use, that ukraine would expel the russians, all the damned russians, from the ukraine in relatively short order.  the ukrainians know how to make use of them, and the russians do not appear to know how to defend against such a threat.

i know that they are here training on them.  i am convinced of that to a certainty.  oh, what a difference they would make. 

i expect putin to come back from vacation quite "dead," having fallen down stairs multiple times .....

somebody in russia is giving vladimir putin little hints that he should step down, these hints coming in the form of odd ball deaths & "accidents" among his supporter and allies.   the latest one died from falling down stairs.   the report i read was silent on how many times "the accident took."

putin has seemingly not taken the hint.

it is my belief that vladimir putin comes back from his sojourn to his country estate quite dead.   we'll see.   but, it appears to me that his adventures in the ukraine, and his threats to use nuclear weapons, have made powerful people in russia very nervous, and very angry.   angry enough to commit regicide.  

john jay @ 09.25.2022

p.s.   i favor a hunting accident, or a fall from a horse ride, perhaps jumping over obstacles.   something like that, to protect his image as a man of action.  but, quite dead.

russia? the wheels coming off?

the "state" of the russian "state."--

-- loosing a war,and badly, to the ukraine.

-- conscription riots all over russia, as rioters take to the streets to protest conscription in an attempt to salvage the ukrainian war.

-- putin leaves/flees/vacates moscow for a private reserve in the woods.   is he tired, exhausted, sick?  is he fearing public rioting and upheaval over his conscription directives?    is he fearing assassination attempts on the part of state-apparatus foes who blame him for the debacle in the ukraine?

who the hell knows?  

but, it is apparent that not all is calm and normal in the russian state/"state", and that it is in a "state of upheaval" and political unrest, and that the state's existence is somewhat in question.

john jay @ 09.25.2022

referendums, phooey, merely russian admissions that they are getting their asses kicked out of ukraine militarily .....

had things gone to "plan b" in the russian invasion, they would have held onto control of the southeastern oblasts in ukraine, and consolidated power before holding the "referendums" on whether people in the captured oblasts wished to remain in ukraine, or be under russian control and sovereignty.

in my view, the fact that the russians are holding such "elections" now is an admission that they think that they will soon be ejected from control in those regions, and that they figure they had better hold the elections/referendums now, even if such election smack of nothing more than pretexts trying to justify the invasion.

they know their stores of ammunition and weapons is being rapidly depleted, that their ability to carry on open warfare is rapidly diminishing, and that they are simply not going to be able to resist being ejected from the ukraine in the not too distant future.

(which in my view, is already happening.   the russian war machine is becoming exhausted very quickly.  supplies, munitions, man power, logistical capability, all disappearing before our eyes, ... , and, what they do have, is demonstrably inferior to western armaments.  how they ever expected to be able to contend militarily with a fully mobilized n.a.t.o. is quite beyond my comprehension.)

so, they will hold the phony referendums.   and, they will announce their phony results.    and, their butts will be booted out of the ukraine in relatively quick order.

next phase, the legal and political wrangling, which will mean very little in the face of military and political reality.   but, it will be entertaining, the chief question being whether putin lives or not.

john jay @ 09.25.2022

were i the ukraine military, this is what i would do, as of september 22, 2022 .....

i would continue to "pin" the russians in kherson via continuous attack.  yes, wasteful of troops, i know.  (but the russians will not abandon kherson, without more or less surrendering the war.)

i would then "attack" mariupol launching from just to the west of donetsk (not attackinng nor attempting to hold it, and avoiding urban conflict), intending to reach the black sea to the west of mariupol, then to severe the roads to kherson.   again, staying to the open ground, and avoiding urban fighting.

i would attempt to hold and exploit such a salient, even at the cost of troops, in order to starve the russians out of kherson.   the advantages to fighting an entrenched enemy, and embedded artillery, are obvious.

yes, all exploitation of salients and attempts at encirclement run the risk of an enemy encircling the attacking forces, and i know of absolutely no way of an attacking force to avoid this risk without overwhelming superiority of forces.   this is an inherent risk of aggressive attack.

but, in the ukraine the risk is somewhat minimized by the demonstrated inability of the russians to move troops and materials, even unopposed across russian soil.   (rember the 20, or was it 40 mile choked road poised above kiev while the russians struggled to do anything there.)   and, the russians just don't seem to be able to do anything quickly, what with the cumbersome command structure that they have developed in many years of a rather stagnating peace, it would seem.

they are, in no wise, anything close to being in "fighting trim."

right now, the russian/putin mobilization of troops means little.   it will be some months before they get into ukraine, and it will be a long long time before they get integrated into an effective presence on the battlefield.   and, do not forget, they don't want to be fighting in the ukraine in the first damned place.  (this paragraph, and the preceding two, say precisely the same thing.  though the russians are capable of being brutal to civilians, they are less effective against a quick, aggressive and formidable enemy such as ukraine.)

so, that's my "two cents" on the matter.  we shall see.

john jay @ 09.23.2022

 

p.s   road maps.  e105 runs south right into the heart of cremea.  m23 runs westerly from mariupol directly to kherson.    the two roads intersect just at melitopol, about 135-40 klm from the east bank of a huge resovoir on the dnieper river.  if the ukraine can reach the sea here, and cut the russians off from kherson, that garrison will either surrender or starve.

i have previously suggested a ukrainian attack down e105 , reaching the black sea between mariupol and melitopol, and heading west to cut off the crimea.   this is about the same difference, just access to a better map.   the garrison of russian troops on the crimea is pretty jumpy, very nervous right now, and seizing the junction of m23 and e105 might just put them to flight.

go, ukraine.

 

tired of "tacky" necks on new guitars? an easy solution .....

it's as easy as fixing a cut finger.

simply buy a johnson & johnson band-aid, made with the new "flexible fabric" band aid strip.   and, affix it to the palm of your fretting hand, from the joint under the index finger diagonally to the butt of your hand.   i am going to use the 1 3/4" x 4" band-aid on new stuff, rather than hitting it with 0000 fine steel wool, or sanding with 2500 grit sand paper  ....  both of which leave the finish cloudy.

i don't pretend to any genius on this.   i just got bit by a dog the other day, the dog leaving puncture wounds over and under the joint on my left index finger, and another lesser puncture over the back of my wrist joint.  i put on some "flex-fabric" band-aids as the wounds were healing, to make sure that the flexibility of my hand would be o.k.

it was.

but, the point is, the "flex-fabric" over the back of guitar necks was just slicker than fresh snot.  (well, i had to describe it somehow.)  this fabric on the band-aid strip is just very very smooth.   and, slick.   and, it sticks to the hand like crazy.   the only draw back is that it is a little hard to get off, ..... , but, that's hardly a draw back, is it?

i've not tried this on every guitar neck there is, because i don't own a guitar store.   but, it has worked very well on a guitar that was just kinda "sticky," and it was hard to move up and down the neck, because of the tackiness. 

give it a try.   the worst thing that can happen is that you may have a new package of band-aids with a "missing" one.

john jay @ 09.22.2022

p.s.   laughing.   and, nope, i have not received any compensation or promise of same for this "endorsement" of a johnson & johnson product.   nor do i expect same.  such is life.

p.s.s.   and, nope, i don't know if doing this will polish a guitar neck.   or, how long that might take.   you find out, and let me know.

stick a fork in putin ..... he is "done," fully cooked .....

as i understand the situation with russia's call up of reservists, they will be provided 15 days training, and sent to the ukraine as replacements.   does the phrase "cannon fodder" mean anything to you.   if you look at articles from wwii, you will soon realize that the life expectancy of such "replacement" troops is very short in comparison to veterans of battle, and this is true for all armies.   this will prove greatly exaggerated in the context of russian "practices."

so, ... .--

all over russia there have been protests and rioting with regard to this call up, and even the burning of a couple of recruiting stations.  (and, how many "recruits" has russia signed for this very unpopular war?   not very damned many.)

the russians cannot train these poor sods for the war they will be entering, they cannot be integrated into existing units, and it is quite unlikely that they will be adequately fed and housed when the get to the ukraine.

meanwhile, back at the ranch, there is apparently great controversy in the ranks of russian officers, who disagree sharply with the kremlim's interference in war strategy, and even command decisions, according to the articles i have read.   the "command structure" in the ukraine is so poorly organized that it all but eliminates the ability of russian troops to react to rapidly changing field & battle conditions, and to rapidly changing ukrainian troop dispositions.    this, btw, is precisely what is intended by the ukrainians, who have found the russians entirely incapable of adapting to & keeping "up" with, their "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee" tactics and troop movements.

i have repeatedly described this ability of ukraine to move quickly, showing that the ukraine has "out thought and out fought" the russians.  a whole mess of reservists who haven't been integrated into russian units coming on to the battle field will not improve this  .....  in fact, it should greatly exacerbate it.   it will simply be a matter of more russians to kill, when they do show up.  

if they do.   remember russians 40 mile road of supplies outside the confines of ukraine when the war started.  it sat for months.  without moving.

and, then there is putin's health, his physical condition.   the latest pictures showing him looking like death warmed over, his hair thinning, his physical posture declining, and his face puffy and pallid, at the same time, which is a "hard trick" to achieve.   i don't know if he has contracted something that is fatal quickly, but, he is clearly not long for this world.

i believe that he will die in relatively short order.   if not assassinated, then by his own feeble health.

finally, there is china.   they are not nuts about putin's threatening the use of nukes.   that is abundantly clear.   and, they have no desire to take on the west in a general war.   they will abandon russia completely if the russians try to maneuver them into that, in some idiotic dooms day scenario.   the chinese simply will not stand for that.

i think putin has accomplished what seemed impossible less than a year ago, and that is, loosing a war with the ukraine.    stick a fork in putin, and in russia.    barring some monumental miscalculation on the part of the ukraine, russia is loosing, and has lost, this war.   the fall of karkiv and kherson will seal their fate:  one has happened, the other seems imminent. 

we shall see.

john jay @ 09.22.2022