update, 02.17.2023. this popped into my noggin just now, as i was signing a post of my adventures with the guitar. i think it should come under a heading for "conditions for a peace agreement between russia and the ukraine." it assumes that the ukraine continues to kill russians and destroying russian equipment at its current pace, and that russia is finally compelled to negotiate an end to the war. i propose that a condition be that the russians abandon their equipment where it sits in the ukraine, and then forms up its soldiers and marches them home on foot back to russian territory. this would include all armor, artillery and munitions, etc. they should be allowed to take their small arms with them, so that they can mutiny once back inside russian territory. ukraine can refurbish stuff worth fixing, and scrap the rest. but, no reason to let the damned russians have it, after they have been whupped." end update.
draft.
as always, to the maps. and, as always, it pays to access one's memory banks, e.g., with an eye towards history. and, finally, one never wants to forget obvious fact, and that is, russia initiated this war by invading the ukraine just about a year ago. and, flush with occupying ukrainian territory, annexed 4 oblasts of the ukraine when the ukraine began to retake that ground from them.
so, we have russia invading the ukraine. we have the breakup on the soviet union not so long ago. we have russia's history with poland and germany. and, we have access to the black sea more or less controlled by turkey.
let's look at the black sea first, more particularly, its eastern more or less half. think of the eastern shore as a half circle, the major portion lapping up against turkey, thence northerly along the coast of georgia, thence swinging along a northern border of russia, and then along the coast of the ukraine and then enfolding the crimean peninsula.
a truth emerges here. and, that is, russia is by no means limited in its access to the black sea, and no means limited to access to water which is open during the winter months. all russia has to do is develop such a port. thereby lies the rub, because russia's natural inclination is simply to steal by conquest such an asset, rather than build it herself.
the best view of the areas i am going to consider are found in the maps maintained by the institute for the study of war (isw) and its critical threats project for the invasion of the ukraine. i believe that the isw is the "authoritative source" for keeping track of ground gained initially by russia at the start of the war and then taken back under ukrainian control through this date. and, the "critical threats project" will probably be the place to turn to when the two adversaries begin their spring offensives, there, and at the bbc coverage. (which in itself relies heavily on isw for its uptodate analysis.)
and, finally, for my purposes, i will look to russia's stated aims for the war when it was initiated, which were pretty grandiose and expansive at the beginning. documents captured by the ukraine reveal that russia intended, and fully expected, to overrun and conquer the ukraine in a few short weeks, capture its leadership and any opposition forces, and simply liquidate them. that means that they intended to capture the political and military opposition, and kill them. and, consistent with russian aims and practices in other operations of this type, they intended to kidnap women and children, take them to russia, and adsorb them into the russian population without a trace left behind, and to colonize the ukraine with russian administrators and immigrants. in short, to eliminate any trace of ukrainian nationality and politics and history. in short, genocide. all nice and tidy.
this "plan" has been revealed quite starkly in the events surrounding russia's abortive attempts to take kiev in the opening days of the invasion, in the town of bucha, in which the russians murdered over 450 civilians, many of whom were found bound hand and foot, and shot in the back of the head, and left in the streets to rot.
and, now, we have now. as this is written, the ukrainians have hung onto the gains made in late summer and early autumn in the kharkiv region, and in the recapture of the town of kherson in kherson oblast. as i write this, the russians are still trying to take bhakmut, at great costs, for reasons no one quite can fathom from a strategic standpoint. (it seems to me, quite evident, that it is simply an effort to legitimize its claims in support of its "annexation" of the relevant oblast ... which to my mind indicates that russia still thinks it can "settle" this war by "diplomacy." russia knows, it seems to me, that it hasn't the resource to conquer the entire country of ukraine, but, will try and get at the diplomatic tables what it cannot win on the battlefield. and, to satisfy this "modified war aim," putin seems willing to sacrifice another 200 to 300,000 russian war dead.) (he's satisfied that the russian people will make more cannon fodder, as they have always.)
so, how would i propose this whole mess gets solved, by negotiation and diplomacy.
well, first off, my view of the matter is that it will require a whole lot more dead russians before putin/russia is satisfied nothing more can be gained on the battlefield. at some point, putin will be satisfied of this, and then he will put on his putin peace hat, and try to solidify what gains he can take from the whole mess.
and, in my view, this will be a successful russian military strategy, so long as russia can maintain and keep the war as a war in the trenches, as they have done this winter, and can prevent it from becoming a war of maneuver again, which is much in favor of the ukraine. so putin will pour fodder into the trenches, and hope for the best.
and, the ukraine will hope that the weapons obtained from the west will allow them to get to moving again, which is much to their advantage.
now, i have long maintained that it is very difficult to crystal ball warfare, both in the manner in which it is waged, and in the results. if the ukraine can keep things fluid, the disparity in the number of troops both sides can put in the field, advantage russia, can be overcome by smartness and audacity and superior soldiery, advantage ukraine.
it is extremely difficult and even foolhardy to try and predict battlefield outcomes. so, let us move to the next task, and see if we can anticipate some likely battlefield outcomes. after all, fools rush in, where angels fear to tread.*
pre-conditions for a negotiated peace agreement in the ukraine.
1.)russia withdraws all troops from ukrainian soil, this based upon internationally recognized borders existing before the present russian invasion.
2.)russia surrenders all territories claimed by illegitimate annexations of ukrainian territory, to include the 4 oblasts annexed in 2022, and the annexation of crimea in 2014.
3.)upon meeting these conditions, a "cease fire" agreement is signed by russia and the ukraine.
4.)russia acknowledges that ukraine, and quite possibly belarus, will apply immediately for membership in n.a.t.o. and the euro uniion. russia will have no objection to n.a.t.o. troops taking up station in the ukraine, if the ukraine requests this from n.a.t.o. nor will russia object to additional arms and weapons being obtained by ukraine from n.a.t.o.
this is where the diplomacy begins, with the following. the foregoing has simply been a recognition that ukraine has prevailed in war/combat with russian forces.
1.)even though russia has made absolutely no showing that the absence of a bona fide deep water port & facilities on the ukrainian coastline has impeded its export of agricultural produce to the rest of the world, the parties shall agree to discuss the provision of such port facilities along the ukrainian coast line as near as practicable to the previously existing border between the two countries. the cost of building and equipping such a port shall be borne by russia, solely.
2.)such port facilities shall have a strictly observed border, and russia agrees that its facilities will not "spill over." the port facilites shall be maintained, observed and administered under international supervision, much as the port facility at trieste was after world war ii.
3.)adequate road and rail facilities shall be built for transportation out products and goods into and out of the port facilities. stations for fueling and repair shall be built along rail and roads.
4.)no traffic off of the roads or rail shall be allowed, and the boundaries shall be policed by n.a.t.o. and ukrainian troops.
5.)reparations. an international court shall be set up to determine those reparations owed by russia to ukraine in compensation and reparation for damage done to the infrastructure and social structure of the ukraine by russia. a figure shall be established for the amount of such reparations in u.s. dollars, and a schedule set for the payment of such reparation. this figure shall include payment to n.a.t.o. for the cost of funding the ukraine with weapons used in defending it country.
6.)mechanism for payment of such reparations to ukraine. this shall be determined by the international court. russia shall have no veto. failure to pay such reparations as scheduled by the tribunal shall be construed as an act of war.
7.)vladimir putin resigns from political life in the soviet union/russia. he surrenders to be tried for war crimes before an international court, and the court shall have authority and jurisdiction to impose the death penalty upon him. "you buy into the game of international politics, and you pay the ante and the costs of loosing all bets. period."
on the issue of surrender of national territory by russia and the ukraine. this issue shall be argued before an international body comprised of russia, ukraine, the united states, china, japan, germany, poland, england, france, belarus, afganastan, kazakhstan, india, brazil, argentina, venuzuela, panama, canada, ceylon, and the baltic states and finnland.
voting shall be by the separate international states. no state shall have veto power. period. to sit on the tribunal, each member states shall recognized the legitimacy of the court, and the binding nature of the decisions put before it, the decisions to be decided, and supervision of any and all orders.
this commission shall have limited authority to direct decision of the ceding of lands by russia to the ukraine, and by the ukraine to the russian state/federation.
a. the crimea. russia shall cede all claims to the crimea to the ukraine, and shall abide by the boundaries established by the tribunal.
b. the kherson oblast. russia shall cede all claims to the kherson oblast to the ukraine, and shall abide by the boundaries established by the tribunal, which shall be the boundaries on the date of the present russian invasion.
c. the nation of moldova. russia shall cede and renounce all claims to any territorial power, prerogative, authority and sovereignty of and over the state of moldova. all russian governmental personnel in that country shall leave, forthwith. this to include governmental operatives, intelligence personnel, etc.
the ukraine and moldova, shall they wish, may discuss political federation, or, indeed, moldova becoming part of the ukraine, upon such terms as shall be agreeable to both parties. any decisions taken by the two countries shall be entirely done/made at the voluntary prerogative of the two countries, and voted upon by plebiscite and open elections, and all such negotiations and elections take under international supervision by the united nations.
if moldova wishes to remain independent, that decision shall be binding upon the parties. if moldova wishes federation with the ukraine, it shall be up to the parties to determine exactly how this shall be done, and to set timelines for the integration of their politics and governmental structures.
d. the nation of belarus. [repeat paragraph above.]
e. ceding of territories with the ukraine to russia.
now, this last part is a bit fuzzy, if not entirely inchoate, because it is premised upon events which have yet to occur, and, which, indeed, are going to be quite difficult to precisely anticipate. and, i expect it may not be very well received.
i suspect that given the russian history of being the prime bully boy in this region of the world, that if the russians do not achieve their desired ends in the war of aggression waged against the ukraine, that after a little bit of licking their wounds and blaming their failures on everybody else, that they will face an irrepressible temptation to try it all over again.
and, i am giving due recognition to the intractable obstinacy of certain populations in the donbas region, e.g., the donetsk and ____________ oblasts of the ukraine, to have some sort of political union for russia. now, i recognize that a good deal of this will be as a result of persistent russian efforts to promote a separatist movement in this area of the ukrain, via agitprop and outright subversion, but it does seem to be real.
and, it has persisted in the face and years and years of ukrainian efforts to quell it, to stamp it out. quite frankly, it has engendered outright warfare as between the central government of the ukraine and separatists elements in the oblast, and in the political structure of the oblasts.
quite frankly, were i the ukrainians, i would be quite eager to rid myself of the bother of having to deal with them. but, there are a couple of problems, that being the cities of melitopol and mariuopol, which are economic centers, and adjacent to the trade routes coveted by the russians.
what i am going to propose is very much influenced and colored by the warfare that will go on in the next 5 or 6 months between russia and the ukraine, and the very real issue of which of the armies contesting these areas of the country, are in control, has which territories in its control and occupancy.
this is the part that is just impossible to predict (or conjure up) with anything resembling precision.
so, this is what i am going to recommend.--
let's get some maps of the ukraine and russia, and, some colored pencils or magic markers, and shade in the areas which we believe the two country's armies will be occupying or controlling say at the end of june, or july, or even august. let's not draw in solid lines, or anything like that, but let's just look at the generalized areas that the various forces control.
now, i am assuming/guessing/hoping against hope, that at the end of the period described, that the ukraine will control the entirety of the kherson oblast, and both banks of the dnipro/dnieper river along its entire length to the black sea, and will also have crimea in its control.
i suspect that the eastern most area of ukraine will also be more or less occupied by ukrainian troops.
and, finally, i also am of the opinion that perhaps russian troops will still be bitterly hanging on in an area roughly east of mariuopol, and that the ukraine will be occupying most of the geography of the country west of melitopol, and a corridor to the west of melitopol and somewhat east of mariuopol.
in short, i anticipate that the ukraine will have most of its territory under its control, having ejected russian troops from same, but that the russians may still be present with an armed force of some type centered around mariuopol.
now, here is where my ideas will engender quite a bit of opposition from people who support the ukraine. (and, i am one of those persons, and have been saying that the ukraine will prevail in this war from about 10 days or so into it. so there.) i suggest that we take those areas in which the russian military is hanging on persistently, and depending on whether the russians have a land bridge connecting russia to those areas in the ukraine, simply cede those areas to russia.
let the howling commence!! laughing.
now, before anyone blows any cranial arteries over this suggestion, please bear in mind: 1.)i advocate the crimea going back to the ukraine. 2.)i advocate moldova joining up in some sort of federation w/ the ukraine, and being rid of the russians. 3.)the reunification of the ukraine with the crimea more than makes up the limited amount of territory being ceded to the russians, and this loss of territory is more than compensated for by the ukraine ridding itself of the strife, indeed, civil war associated with that limited area of the donbas (and the continual russian agitprop and political operations associated with it, ... , and by the ukraine regaining the crimea.
keep something in mind here. and, that is, the passage of time.
the ebb and flow of time has a way of "finding" political reality. if the separatist area of the ukraine does not find being associated with russia all that much fun, or desirable, it will find its way back to the ukraine. it just will, trust me on this. and, if they are truly "russians," whatever the hell that means, then they will stay with russia, and in that regard, ukraine will be shed of their headaches.
yes, russia will piss and moan about this. they will want more. fuck 'em.
finally, the overwhelming reality of n.a.t.o.
when the smoke clears, the fighting stops, and the russians have slunk back to russian with their tails between their legs, that is when n.a.t.o. shall welcome the ukraine (and belarus ????) into the economic, political and military colossus which is n.a.t.o.
if russia wants to commit any monkey business insofar as the ukraine is concerned, they will be looking at 6th and 7th generation air craft, an entirely new generation of land warfare armor and equipment, a new generation in artillery and drones, and an economic might and productive capacity which the russians can only dream of.
there will be no fiddling around with this on the part of the russians.
let me put the matter to you in this fashion.-- have the russians messed with Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania? the answer is no, and it is going to stay, no!! period.
these are my thoughts.
i am gonna let this percolate another [couple days] [a little bit] [a day or so] [______________], and then i am gonna post it in draft form, and welcome comments and criticisms. we'll see how that goes.
john jay @ 02.07.2023 (date of "completion" of this first draft.)
* i have never been taken for an angel. make your own conclusions.