summer patriot, winter soldier

map of the ukraine ..... at a map compiled by critical threats and institute for study of war ..... what it teaches us .....

https://storymaps/arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a .....

that's not the entire address, but you should be able to find it without too much difficulty.   it pretty much tells you about what you need to know about the state of the russian military in the ukraine, as of today's date.

well, you say!!

it shows the disposition of the military forces in and about kherson the russia's next to the black sea and the ukrainians to the north, as they press their attacks upon kherson.   and, it shows something else, that being the apparent position of these contending forces along the dnipro river, roughly half way between kherson to the west and melitopol to the east.

it is a narrow salient along the banks of the dnipro, down to a town called nova kakhovka, or thereabouts.  (nope, i never heard of the place before, either.  i haven't a clue as to its "claim to fame.")   this narrow strip is, according to the map makers, more or less under ukrainian control.   it is well within, on both sides, of territory still nominally held by the russians.

this little strip has been appearing on the isw & critical threats map for a time now.

okay, so what you say, what does it teach us?

well, if there ever was a salient, in military terms, in the history of warfare that was exposed to flanking attack in the form of the classic pincer movement, then this salient would be it.   yet it is there.

and, here is another little point that indicates something should be happening around this salient, and that the russians should be attacking it as if their very lives depended upon it.  well, ... , because the very lives of the russians at kherson do in fact depend upon closing this salient.   and that is because nova kakhovka sits smack dab across route e58 which goes to kherson, and is the main supply line to kherson for the russian forces.  and, it controls the intersection with road e97 going directly to the crimea, and another intersection going south into the crimea.

it is just about as much as an intersection can be, in order to be called a major logistical junction.   now, if it is a salient only in the map maker's imagination, then all my fuss about it is a bit of bloviating.    but, if it is an actual salient/an inroad into russian controlled territory, then it is in fact about as important strategically as a place can get.

update, 10.07.2022.   i did not know this, and just read it late last night, but, nova kakhovka is basically the location of a head water to a fresh water canal that provided the crimea with its fresh water.  yes, when and if the ukraine again governs this area, they will control the fresh water supply to a very important part of russia, after its annexation of crimea in 2014.  this is tantamount to controlling the food supply going into the crimea, and come to think of it, when and if the ukraine controls e58 and e97, they will also control to a very large extent the transshipment of food into the crimea.   i don't suppose the importance of this can be overstated.   end update.

yet, the maps & articles at isw & critical threats have shown no effort on the part of the russians to destroy that salient.

and, that just about sums up the war in the ukraine at this point.--

the russians can do very little to protect themselves, other than hold fast, and pray that the ukraine will try to root them out of their urban garrisons.   if they cannot rouse themselves to attempt to close this salient, means that they can do nothing anywhere in the south of the ukraine.  they still have some places where they lob some artillery shells, but this is pretty much ineffectual (unless you just happen to be underneath one of the damned things as it returns to earth) in the scheme of things, and goes along because the ukrainians are content to let the russians sit there for the time being.

in the meantime, the ukrainians will complete the encirclement of kherson, and will bypass the garrison in order to further isolate it.   and, when they take control of e58 and e97, if they do in fact, then that means the end of the russian presence in southern ukraine, and places the crimean peninsula in very dire straights.   it just about means the end of the russian invasion.

which is why putin blubbers about western intervention, and babbles about a nuclear battlefield.    he has very little other recourse open to him with the fall of kherson.

and, the ukraine is so very close to nova kakhovka as to be able to blow a frosty breath on it.   and, russia can do nothing to stop them, if the map accurately portrays the tactical and strategic disposition of the military forces involved.   the russians are about as "pinned in" kherson as a military force can get, as they exhibit no movement.

we shall see.

john jay  @ 10.06.2022

 

p.s.   and, if the ukraine does not close the trap today, then tomorrow, and if not tomorrow, then some day soon after.  when they do, the war is over for the russians, except to pack up and go home.   and, to hang putin from the lamp posts.

so what if the ukrainians are not "lily white?" ..... perhaps a bit "soiled?" ..... are we perfect?

they are fighting russia, killing her soldiers, and sapping russian power and prestige.   what in the hell more do you want?

get them the weapons they need, and in the number they need.   and, if our stocks are getting lower, we'd better get our asses in gear and make more stuff.--   tanks, artillery shells, infantry rifle and ammo.   and, air planes and anti-aircraft missiles.

it is time to ramp up and mobilize.  period.   and, this means against china and russia.

john jay @ 12.07.2022

december 7, 1941 ..... the imperial japanese navy attacks pearl harbor, hawaii .....

on this date japanese naval forces initiate war against the united states of america, and "initiate" u.s. military forces into world war ii.  the japanese gain a stunning victory in one sense, and loose the war in another for several key strategic blunders.

they do not attack fuel tanks at pearl harbor, preserving the navy's fuel supplies, and enabling the u.s. to conduct naval operations.   they attack the battleships, w/ spectacular success, but not the harbor's ship handling operations and equipment.   of the battleships lost, most went down in very shallow water, allowing them to be lifted & re-floated, and repaired and outfitted again for battle:  quite a few of them participated in the island battles later in the war.  nor did the japanese attack the air stations and their fuel supplies with any great attention.

by analogy, we might look to the sport/contest/battle of boxing, and say that the japanese knocked the united states to the canvas with a very heavy blow, but, did not deliver the knockout punch to the u.s. fleet that might have guaranteed them unfettered freedom in the pacific.   most of the battleships would be reborn to fight another day.   and, by leaving the fuel supplies intact, the great carrier fleets were preserved for battle:  their would be enough of them to oppose the japanese until the industrial might of the u.s. could produce more carriers, and more planes, in such numbers and quality that ultimately the japanese could not oppose them.

"it was a date that shall live in infamy."   and, should not be forgotten.***

john jay @ 12.07.2022

 

*** understand, that thanks to the bellicose and aggressive postures of russia and china, that japan's military spending is increasing sharply.  russians have stupidly said that they planned to start war against japan for some contested islands, and china is getting more aggressive in asserting her territorial aims.  apparently, japan will not ignore all of this.   she is rearming.   and, she understands naval and infantry warfare  .....  some things are not forgotten.

look for a sharp increase in japanese birth rates??   who knows.

if hungary stands in the way of n.a.t.o. helping the ukraine, then get rid of hungary .....

it's pretty simple.  if hungary stands in the way of n.a.t.o. knocking russia down to size, and helping the ukraine, then the simple expedient is to expel hungary from n.a.t.o.   it may or may not be entirely consistent with the stated aims of n.a.t.o. to do so, but, the simple fact is that the ukraine is far more important at this juncture than hungary.

so, get rid of hungary.   and, kick it out of the e.u. as well.   who needs 'em (at least for the time being.)   plenty of time to bring them back into the fold after ukraine's status is secured as a member of n.a.t.o. upon the russian expulsion.

the hungarians will be in a snit.   who cares?  what are they gonna "do" about it? 

john jay @ 12.07.2022

p.s.   if there are hungarians who would desire to be in the russian fold, let them go to russia, if they like the damned place so much.  simple as that.  it's not a long trip, as trips go.  and, the russians could use some replacements, demographically speaking.

if you want to know a little bit about gun control ..... [hint: it is more about "people" control, imho] .....

read this analysis.  put on your glasses, and put on your thinking cap.  read, and think.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/what-the-data-actually-say-about-assault-weapons/ar-AA14W08Z?ocid=winpltaskb .....

"what the data actually say about assault weapons" by sheldon h. jacobson, phd.

the author concludes that gun deaths are a rather minuscule contributor to deaths (and death rates) in the usa, and that assault weapons make a very small contribution to these figures.  he does not see regulation of assault weapons as being much of a factor in changing this, if at all.

it is an interesting read, and how it ever got published by msn is a mystery to me.   it is definitely not your usual leftist/progressive hit piece on weapons.  "just the facts ma'am, just the facts."

john jay @ 12.06.2022

reply to paul and liz on the matter of man's free will ..... and, evil acts .....

yes, morality and civil behavior are a matter of choice.  and, if we are to make choices, it certainly opens the possibility that we will make very bad, or immoral, and yes, even evil choices.  (i do not think it follows that the freedom of choice absolves us of the consequences or the responsibility for bad choices, and certainly not for evil choices.)

but, god (or perhaps his representatives, or, perhaps press secretaries),  has also said, let no man put asunder what god has joined.   so, even the conferral of free will does not absolve us of, for lack of a better word, sin.

yes, we can choose.   but, why do some choose bad, (or, "badly", if you will), while others choose a better or a more honorable path.

take the cases of the fed ex drivers who first abducted the little girls and then killed the little girls.   by the way, i can think of absolutely nothing more morally repugnant (save, perhaps, making a career out of performing abortions.)   is there any person, any thing, more innocent, more free of sin or guilt, than an infant or a very young child?  (save an unborn and absolutely innocent fetus.)

were does the initial impulse, the well spring of the ultimate sin, come from.   how is it born, and then nurtured to the point where the person acts upon his impulse, and kills a child.  yes, there is the matter of the capacity so to do in the nature of free will, but why does a person choose to do so, when, with equal ease, he can choose not to do so.  (have you ever read the description of an abortion?  ever?)

what is the necessity that impels a person to commit such an act?   yes, we are "free" to do so in the sense that we may be capable of doing so, but why do we step into quagmire of killing innocence.   either one innocent at a time, or on a production line?

now, i am not one to condemn killing in a "blanket" manner.   i think killing is justified in many settings, and for many reasons, witness my cheering of the ukrainians for defending their country from an unprovoked & heinous russian invasion.   in that circumstance, i think that killing russians is a moral imperative.  self defense from attack, the defense of one's nation from attack, to the point of repeated killing if necessary, is entirely laudable.  (and, i am not unmindful of the fact that soldiers involved in this thoroughly defensible behavior are haunted by it in later years, ... , if they survive combat.)

but, true evil, and if it exists, it certainly exists when someone kills a young child.   why does it happen?

we see more and more in our society when assailants "run amok" and kill multiple victims, who cannot said to have committed any offense against their killers, even by their killers in "justification" for their actions, other than merely existing.  it is something of a mystery to me.

and, a mystery that is not compatible with my views on a just & harmonious existence.

john jay @ 12.05.2022

my own very personal proof of god's "ability" to be obtuse and/or abstruse or both ..... and, cruel .....

our view of god's ability to be all, to be all powerful, must include wisdom and compassion, and it must include the qualities of being obtuse and/or abstruse, perhaps past our ability to comprehend.

one the one hand we are gifted by god's compassion and generosity.  and, what limited intelligence we enjoy has to be included in that package of attributes conferred upon us.   and, on the other hand, good has also "conferred" upon us several other gifts of a more dubious nature, those including the capacity to murder and to inflict suffering and degradation upon our fellows.

i give you putin.   and, martin heydrich.   and, klaus barbie.

and, if god has the ability to confer these qualities upon us, it seems to me that he also must share in the attributes he confers.

it is my personal view that being all powerful comprehends being a bit "asleep at the switch" with regard to our existence, and though he stands in judgment, he must also in some respects stand in ignorance and neglect of our situation.   even, perhaps, indifference.

i give you putin.  and, reinhard heydrich.  and, klaus barbie.  and, joseph goebbels. 

and, now it seems, fed ex drivers.  in texas, within the week past, a fed ex driver abducted and murdered a 3 year girl after delivering a package to her parent's house.  and, again in texas, with the past couple of months or so, another fed ex driver abducted and murdered a 7 year girl.   two lives, stolen and destroyed, almost off the front porches of their own homes.

how can we reconcile our concepts of divinity in grace, when that divinity and grace includes beauty and the wonders of life, "hand in hand," so to speak, with atrocious barbarity, wickedness & cruelty, and the absolute absence of any empathy for the life of others.   creation, destruction .....  all in one.

every day, almost ever hour, we are in almost revelation over the accomplishments of man, his aspiration to knowledge and holiness, and his quite opposite tendency to baseness, and cruelty and depravity.   sometimes, i suspect, in the form and existence of a single person.  (this is why i included references to heydrich and barbie, two of the most sadistic person ever to live.  and, being who they were, i have no doubt that they enjoyed opera and the symphony.

how?

well, to me, it is all a hopeless muddle.***   both spiritually and intellectually.

heydrich.  son of a composer, played the violin and the piano, very well.   goebbels, committed suicide with his wife, and they also killed five children before killing themselves.  high educated.   barbie.  and, to illustrate the "muddle" of all things, barbie was an expert in torture, and was known as the "butcher of lyon."   he survived world war ii, and worked after the war for the allies.  he also lived and "worked" at his "trade" in bolivia.   he was finally extradited to france where he was tried for his wwii crimes, and died in prison.

and, putin.  a thug, and a murderer.  evidence/intelligence has come to the fore that prior to invading the ukraine, he contemplated and planned "a limited war" with japan over some obscure islands claimed by both russia and japan, and currently occupied by russia.   instead, for reasons not clearly understood, he abandoned the invasion of japan and invaded the ukraine instead.   he is responsible for the deaths of perhaps 40,000 ukrainian civilians, and noted for the bombings of maternity wards and hospital and apartment building.  as a matter of some note, his agitprop types claimed as a rationale for the war against japan the "denazification" of japan.

yes, i am troubled by all of this.   and, in my mind, it is a hopeless intellectual and spiritual muddle.  and, it makes a muddle out of the attempt to understand and fashion a coherent picture/portrait/understanding of god, and our providence.   to fashion a "personal proof" of the role of god and providence.   and, how much that same "proof" shall guide my life, and our lives.

john jay @ 12.04.2022

*** and, has proved to be the same muddle to governments and government officials in history, and now.  the "killer angel," indeed.

and, should i die tomorrow?

i think that i shall have been found guilty of egregious (& self-serving) overreaching.   and, that's the name of that tune.

john jay @ 12.03.2022

my own very personal proof of god .....

this is my own personal proof of god, or of a divine providence, however you feel comfortable with the concept of good in the universe.  or, whatever.

it is going to be a bit convoluted, so please bear with me.--

my oldest brother steven elmo jay died december 1, 2022 at about 5.30 pm.  he died of kidney failure, as i sat by his bedside.  my youngest brother and his wife arrived immediately after, and paid their respects and visited with him.   we discussed certain things, and i came home.  to calm & compose myself before trying to sleep, i turned to my guitar, and just noodled around with it for a bit.

nope, nothing out of the ordinary yet.  

this morning i went to yakima to try and find some sheet music for a joe pass guitar piece entitled "ain't misbehavin'", a jazz standard i think by fats waller originally.   maybe someone played it before him, i wouldn't be surprised ... .   but, sheet music for guitar, written in the old style (musical staff, notes, keys and time signatures, and not in "tab") is hard to find.   so, i asked at "hot poop" record store, and a fellow who works there suggested trying the whitman college book store.

so, i went into the basement of the campus center, and into the bookstore.   and, at the counter, was this young man, very slight of build, sporting long straight hair to his shoulders, and other adornments of this era.

(to my mind, this is where it gets very interesting.--)

i told him i was looking for some sheet music, for the guitar.  he remarked that he was a music major, and that he was familiar with sheet music, and did i want tab.   i said no, because i wanted to learn a guitar piece, and the music was a complicated guitar piece with inverted roots, a walking base line, and all that sort of stuff.

now, when i said guitar, and given his appearance, i jumped to the conclusion that he would know contemporary shredders and the like, and heavy on the stomp box sort of stuff i rather detest.   but, hope against hope, i told him i was more interested in late 30's early 40's and 50's jazz, people like that.

he chimed in with, oh, you mean like charlie christian, and ______, and ______, and joe pass, and people like that.   i just about fell over.   i said, i am looking to get the sheet music for "ain't misbehavin'," by joe pass.  and, i told him of a couple youtube films of pass playing the song, one just a straight film of him playing, and the other a film with pass playing the song, but the sheet music put up on the screen, about 16 to maybe 32 bars per "post."

he looked it up, found both youtube pieces in an instant, and started printing out the sheet music, of which he gave me two copies.

we exchanged pleasantries, and, i asked him where he was from.

he said, north carolina.   you know, the town "where" the andy griffith show came from.   you know, "mayberry, "... next to, uhm ..." i offered, and he said, "... yeah mount pleasant."  (well, "mayberry" is mount pleasant, or mount airy, i cannot keep it straight.)

i said, well, how did you happen to get to college out here?   and, he said, my aunt, she is the one who knew about the college, i did not.   and "... by the way, she lives in milton freewater."   which is where i live.   and, i said, what is her name, and he said, "tillie makepeace."  she just happens to minister to a church about 2 blocks from where i live.

i chatted about this with my neighbor, georgia, and georgia said she's my minister, and i know about her nephew, and my goodness, you should hear him play the guitar.  i would expect that he knows some jazz pieces.***

well.--

i figure that i have another couple 2 or 3 years on this orb, which is about the time it will take me to learn this piece, and to become more or less proficient on it.   first, there will be lots and lots of drills and the like, just to get my fingers up to making the chord forms for the rhythm work, and to do the single note solo lines.   and, then, to be able to do this at "speed," because the likes of pass and herbie ellis and bernie kessel played not only very complicated pieces, but at tremendous speeds.

and, did i mention that the piece is complicated rhythmically. 

life is precious, and nothing quite confirms this like watching someone close to you die.  and, a dying person does not give into the loss of something precious without a struggle, and not without trying to grasp it for just some more time, to clutch life to his bosom for a few more precious moments, no matter the cost.   and, then, in an instant, the struggle ceases, and a person passes.

i believe that god, or providence, or good, ... , however you wish to style it, ... , has intimated to me, told me directly and personally through these coincident circumstances & events, that i am to be conferred the time in which to learn "ain't misbehavin'" and to learn it with some proficiency.  (me, greedily trying to extend the time conferred.  laughing.)

why else would god have put me through all these little permutations and coincidences, this series of events?  certainly not with the intent to do me in anytime soon.  it just wouldn't make any sense, all these little things coming into place on a saturday morning, except to tell me to learn the joe pass piece, and to learn it well.  that i am given the time.

in short, i view all these little coincidences, to be miraculous.

so, what? you say, these kinds of little things coming together happen all the time.   just like life is improbable, mixing chemicals together that are "antagonistic" in order things like water, and air, essential to our life form(s).   so what?

to which i will simply say, from now on, ... , yes, precisely.   these things are present in all things, one/you/i/we, simply have to see.  and hear.   and comprehend.  and, lastly, to feel, to come into tune.   knowing that sometimes comprehension & feeling take a long time.

john jay @ 12.03.2022 @ 3:53 pm

 

***  i have some cd recordings of bennie goodman's jazz ensemble playing some "hot jazz," with charlie christian playing guitar, ...  , not just a subdued rhythm part, but some single note line solo's.   most interesting.   charlie christian did not live very long after he succumbed to the lure of new york city, but he lived long enough to inspire many very great guitarist to complete his work in making the jazz guitar.  kessel, mickey baker, ellis, pass, kenny burrell, pat martino and johnny smith.   but, ah, joe pass.

i believe i will given my goodman cd's to the kid in the bookstore.  (he already has a pretty good joe pass library.)  i think that he will enjoy them.  when he is not reading cicero.

 

russia's plan was to seize kiev, kill ukraine's leadership, kill any identified sources of trouble, and annex the ukraine all in about 4 or 5 days ..... musta hit a snag or two, huh? .....

seize kiev, kill the leadership in the executive and parliament, identify potential resistance fighters, and kill them, too.   bring in teachers, propagandist broadcasters, and convince the populace that it is russian.  and, assume lasting control. 

this was to be done by airborne assault, airborne elite, as it were, and other means.

the ukraine is publishing captured documents setting forth the elements and timing of the invasion, and setting forth the desired goal.  catch the goose, cut off his head, graft a russian head on him, and convince him that he liked the whole experience, and his new head, even if it was attached a bit backwards.  you know, looking east, and not west.

in case you haven't been paying very close attention, the whole thing hasn't worked out very well for russia.  they hit a few chuck holes along the way. a few snags, as it were. what arrogant butt holes.

john jay @ 12.02.2022

p.s.   and, a lot of soldiers didn't know they were going to war, and didn't have a clue that very many of them would die in the next months.  well, why tell them the truth?   what they may have thought made no difference, stood for nothing.

and, for christ's sake, get them more artillery, more artillery shells, and some jet fights.   the best suggestion i have seen is the swedish grippen.  a gen 4.5 airplane, with missiles that would give the rooskies fits.   can fight low, and can fight high.   the ukrainian pilots would make good use of it.

and, another russian jet crashed, all by itself.   they are having trouble with them crashing all by themselves, kind of a pandemic.

slava ukraine!!!!!

 

putin's personal problems ..... v. "poopy pants" putin cannot control his bowels ..... and, fell on stairs .....

actually, the lead line is a "misleading" line, because it has the order of things wrong.   putin was descending stairs, slipped, fell and bumped his butt multiple times before arresting his fall.   in so doing, he pooped his pants, because of a cancer in his bowel that looks as though it is winning, and putin is loosing.

with his trousers full of poop he retired from the scene, to get his bottom cleaned up.   sort of embarrassing for the dictator of russia to shit his pants in public.  v. "poopy pants" putin looks "dead" to me.   and, as i have said before, he apparently smells dead as well.

john jay @ 12.02.2022