russia is beaten, and cannot win as her military lies in tatters. her infantry and armor are limited only to the static defense of occupied territories, and will be in all probability ejected from the ukraine by the time winter rolls around.*** her air force is without bite, and her navy, negligible at the start of hostilities is now reduced to hiding in the far recesses of the black sea, with no possibility of becoming stronger ... which option shall close in pretty quick order.
russia lacks the industrial base (and money) to do anything about this in the near short term, and, indeed, will require a decade or more to rebuild her conventional military.*** and this "projection" is optimistic.
there remains one open question.--
does the ukraine have the ability to deliver a decisive death blow to the russian invasion this calendar year? i believe she does, but, not without casualties. will she undertake the necessary actions, accompanied by the requisite costs in lives and material, becomes the sole question.
john jay @ 07.10.2023
p.s. russia is naked to chinese aggression, nearly defenseless at her borders, and a concerted & combined effort by china, mongolia, and the former --stans (if they can figure out how to divide the spoils) could easily gobble up several time zones of her territories. the chinese now do not respect russian "power", nor russian leadership. hey, putin must die, to restore ties to china, and territorial concessions made. simple as that.
*** right now, russia does not manufacture main battle tanks in any needed magnitude to replenish losses in the ukraine.
*** western pundits poo poo ukrainian advances against russian defenses, being dissatisfied with any showing less than the karkiv campaign. they are blind to the gains the ukraine has made in the last several months and the fact that ukraine kills russians at a prodigious rate. western pundits, for the most part, are excitable twits.
and, i expect them to be ejected from the ukraine by the time the snow flies and the ground is frozen.
*** or upon putin's death at the hands of his "friends" in russia, and a withdrawal of forces upon the pretext of "diplomacy."