whoa, nelly!!
we must take a fresh perspective of mr. oscar ramiro ortega-hernandez, and be very cautious of labeling him a crazy person because of statements attributable to him, and his appearance.
he may be distinctly more calculating, and a good deal less crazily haphazard, then earlier presumed.
why do i say this?
well, my assumption that mr. ortega-hernandez was a hapless & deranged twit was based upon the choice of weapons supposedly used to shoot at the white house, this weapon described in the media as an ak-47 type or variant, the cartridge used in such a weapon being the 7.62x39mm russian assault rifle round.
the ak-47 is designed for urban close quarters combat, and the close battlefield, and the cartridge is described as an intermediate round with a useful combat range of 250 to 350 meters or so: oh, it may kill you quite dead indeed if you are hit with it at greater ranges, but that happening really means that you've had a bad day, and your luck has run sour, as this happening is likely to be less than purposeful.
bad bad ju ju, or shit house luck, if this happens. in other words.
so, for a person to choose this weapon and this caliber to shoot at a target with any serious intention of hitting the same on a regular basis at over 800 meters does call into serious question his judgment, and yes, his sanity.
and, as it turns out, that is not the weapon nor the caliber that mr. ortega-hernandez either chose or used to shoot at the white house, as the media said. it turns out, as apparently revealed in the government affidavits at mr. ortega-hernandez's preliminary appearance in federal court, that the rifle used was a romanian variant of the soviet dragunov semi-automatic rifle. http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/21/justice/dc-white-house-suspect-hearing/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_cnn . (3rd paragraph from bottom.) the rifle used is a romanian cuigur armory variant of the soviet dragunov, http://www.dragunov.net/romanian_psl.html , and, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSL_(rifle) , and it fires the russian 7.62x54mmR cartridge, first promulgated when the russian military still worked for the czars. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7.62%C3%9754mmR .
the "dragunov" type rifle is not meant for close order combat, rather it is meant for engagement of a target far more distant than the usual urban target, or infantry support of armor, in which the ak-47 is usually brought to bear. by contrast, the dragunov rifle is intended for moderate to fairly long range sniping, and usually fulfills the function of a rifle used by a squad marksman or a sniper. and, the cartridge used, the venerable 7.62x54mmR, though a bit "outmoded" in some respects, remains a front line cartridge in the russian army to this day, and has a performance level roughly comparable to the 7.62x51mm nato (.308 winchester). the 7.62mm nato, for instance, is currently in use by almost all western military and civilian police forces to this day, and quite likely will remain so for a very long time, in just the same roles as the 7.62x54mmR is used by the ruskies.
both the 7.62mm nato and the 7.62x54mmR are, moreover, genuine 1,000 meter cartridges, and any edge the nato round has over the russian round is due to the precision workmanship in nato rifle and ammunition fabrication. the russian round, and the rifles used to fire it, can be plenty accurate if enough attention to tolerance and fit and the like go into their production. the finns, and the russians, have done quite well using the russian cartridge in international sport shooing competitions, and the dragunov remains in use against american soldiers in iraq and afghanistan.
(with another fellow's rifle, & he using his "dope" to dial in "the shooting solution" in his super sniper brand scope, i fired a five shot group at a measured 731 yards that measured 3.25" plus in diameter, with the 7.62mm nato in a remington model 700 bolt action rifle. the rifle had a bipod on the front of the stock, and a pad was used on the butt stock to control elevation in the sighting of the rifle, and all i did was shoot the rifle after it was handed to me at the bench. my friend, using the same rifle and his own 175 grain handloads, fired a 2.00" plus group, at the same distance. a measured 731 yards.
now, the "dragunov" usually doesn't have this cutting edge precision, but a good shooting dragunov at 731 yards might have the ability to shoot into 7-10"'s plus or so, and that is plenty serviceable. indeed.)
the choice of this weapon and this caliber by mr. ortega-hernandez vitiates any assumption that he was only capable of the most random order of chance in hitting anything at the distances involved, ... , e.g., that he was capable only of a "shit house luck" order of probability in hitting anything, ... , and rather compels an assumption that he was rather purposeful in his designs, and that he had a pretty good chance of hitting something he aimed at over an 800 yard distance.
if his rifle were fitted with the usual issue optical sight, possessed of the usual soviet target grade illuminated reticule, and if he had worked with the rifle at all, then we must assume that over 800 yards he had a very fair chance at hitting what he was shooting at.
a person with equipment that gives him a fair chance of performing his chosen task must be viewed in an entirely different light than a person who didn't have a tinker's chance in hades of completing an intended act. the later is foolhardy, the former speaks of well considered design. and, intelligence. and purpose. and, finally, capability.
given this, i think that in the end, we will find mr. oscar ramiro ortega-hernandez a far more capable, dedicated, and skilled adversary than his seeming buffoonery as depicted by the media might indicate. in short, i think that in the searches that will follow, the government might well indeed find a well worn volume of "the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders," commonly referred to as the "dsmr-iv-tr," (for "text revision"), by mental health professionals in the trade.
in short, i think he designed his defence in anticipation of the act.
based on the selection of this weapon, i do not think it likely that he is crazy. working on a budget, maybe, but not crazy.
ahem, ... . not by a long shot.
john jay @ 11.21.2011
p.s. reconnaissance of the battlefield, in depth. just testing the perimeter defenses.
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