this day iranian and russian technicians began loading nuclear fuel into iran's reactor near bushehr in southern iran, reported at msnbc and other sources.
were israel to have destroyed or severely damaged iran's nuclear weapons ambitions when they were empty buildings, that would have been one thing: world condemnation would have erupted, but, for the most part those wailing the loudest would have been crying crocodile tears. saudi arabia would have gnashed its teeth in public, but privately would have thanked israel for defanging a regional threat to its power and security. the russians would have torn their hair out in large clumps, but breathed a sigh of relief that moscow was no longer in danger of nuclear attack from a nation just crazy enough to do it.
and so on, and so forth.
now if israel attacks iran's nuclear facilities in order to preempt attack by iran with nuclear weapons, it will be quite another matter: a firestorm of vilification will fall upon israel, like sodom and gomorrah, and the rationale for preemptive attack fall on deaf and very hostile ears. israel's critics, ever eager to criticize her, will quite rightly say, if you were going to do it, why didn't you do it at a time when you could have avoided spreading nuclear fallout over the whole of western europe and the mediterranean.
and, for a change, israel's critics will be right: at that point, it will avail israel nothing to complain, "why didn't you tell me?"
israel will deserve the universal condemnation it will face for its dithering, for its failure to act when it should have. never mind that in almost all other things diplomatic reaction to israeli actions to defend itself have been largely a sham, except for the continuing arab/muslim attempts to destroy israel. in this case, if israel spreads nuclear fall out and waste over europe and its mediterrannan neighbors the condemnation shall be real, and those who advocate israel's destruction shall have carte blanche.
on this day israel ceased to exist as a nation state, the home of the jewish people.
instead of forthrightly choosing to defend itself by preemptive strike upon the iranian nuclear facilities, israel has chosen the snare and delusion and pit of wishful thinking. israel has chosen the course of "seeing" whether iran will follow the peaceful path of other civilized nations with nuclear capability, and with nuclear weapons programs, ... , indeed, israel has chosen the course of believing and "seeing if" iran will behave just as israel has with its own nuclear weapons, and will use them "only" as "deterrents" to attack.
in short, israel has chosen to believe that iran will use the "threat of nuclear weapons" without exercising the use of nuclear weapons.
in this, israel has not chosen ... wisely, ... , to borrow the line from the old knight's templar in the indiana jones movie.
in choosing what i view, what i esteem, as the path of delusion israel has abandoned a fundamental tenet of existence as a nation state, and that is the faith and belief in not only its right to exist as a state, but even more fundamentally, an abandonment of its faith and belief in existing as a religious state and homeland of the jews.
those of a religious bent, and faith in the torah and talmud, will view this as yet another abandonment of the strictures and edicts of jacob, moses, and of g_d. those who view these matters politically and historically will view this as an abandonment of israel's will to exist, and an abandonment of the will to do those things necessary to secure and preserve ones existence. in addition to adhering to those views, i also believe that the israeli discipline and will to fight has been sapped by material comforts and economic well being, and, quite frankly, sheer lassitude and a desire to see if the lazy way will be sufficient to guarantee the existence of the jewish faith.
israel has not chosen ... wisely.
iran and islam have no crisis of confidence, nor any lack of the courage of their conviction that islam has the right to exist and conquer, and that islam and the arab states will fulfill their conviction, faith and vision and will destroy the israeli state.
iran will develop nuclear weapons, and they will either use them to destroy israel by outright attack, or will threaten and cudgel israel into abandoning israel as a religious and political state, and will force israeli's into exile or dhimmitude.
is it fixed in stone that the scenario will play out this way? no, of course not. well, let me put it this way. i do not believe in determinism, and believe that human events are shaped by human decisions and human will, and that historical "process" is a lot surer mechanism at the tail end of things than it is as a tool of forecasting things.
but, approach the matter this way.--
if the israelis did not have the mettle to attack iran's nuclear facilities when by so doing they would not spread nuclear fallout over the region, when are they ever going to develop the stomach for doing so when the prospect for doing so is there. and, let us factor in another thing. let us assume that iran in fact develops nuclear weapons and a delivery system that in all probability can put a weapon over a target with relative accuracy and make it go boom with some certitude: not easy things to do, even yet. well, if israel does not have the cajones to attack iran when in fact iran has neither present capability, when are they going to develop the stomach for carrying on such an attack when iran is armed with nuclear weapons and a capable delivery system.
in short, israel has dithered itself into a situation in which it can do little except wait, watch and hope for the best. in short, it has chosen passivity over aggressive defense.
this has never proved a very good model for continued existence in a hostile world.
israel has submitted itself to the kindness and forbearance of its arab/persian neighbors, and to islam. and, this friends, has never proved itself a very good model for continued existence among arab/persian neighbors, and to islamic neighbors.
the price of existence is eternal vigilance, and the capacity to defend ones self.
israel has shown itself unwilling to pay that price, either by stupidity or cowardice or both. not paying the price for existence, the consequence for israel is either annihilation or dispersal and diaspora from its homeland.
when g_d finally brought the house of israel to the shores of the jordan he gave israel through moses explicit instructions on how to secure and preserve the land of "milk and honey" for their eternal possession, and how to secure and preserve israel's relationship with g_d.
being stupid and delusional to the bone was not part of the deal. and, making ones way in the world by bluff and bluster, and not having even the basic resolution to preserve ones self and ones nation wasn't part of the deal, either.
and finally, not having sufficient faith in ones place in the world, nor in ones relation with g_d, nor not having sufficient wit to realize the relation of those two concepts, was not part of the deal, either.
in short, israel has lost faith in itself, and in the concept of israel as the home of the jews, and the lack of this belief and faith is the death knell of the state of israel. israel has defrauded israel, and lost its birthright, and lost it right to exist as a nation, simply because it will assert as a matter of faith, neither.
israel no longer believes. this day, israel ceased to exist.
it is a simple matter. either one believes in ones right to exist, and defends it, or one doesn't and won't. in this world, the consequences are clear, and quite predictable. confirmation of this view will occur: if you will not a state, you will not be a state, ... , soon enough.
john jay @ 10.26.2010