…. and, if any of you have published similar conclusions before me, i humbly apologize, but, applaud you for the clarity of your thinking.--
it occurred to me that benjamin netanyahu and i think very much alike, the ripening of this realization requiring only 5 months or so of gestation, to engage in my favorite process of mangling and mixing metaphors.
please allow me to explain the process.—
friends:
think for a moment.--
"unilateral" movements from palestinians will beget "unilateral" movements from outside the peace process, or so says benjamin netanyahu. …. .
what net&n means by all of this, is that if the palestinians declare an independent state, and if it is recognized by the oic &/or the u.n., then it means war. the immediate consequence of palestine receiving recognition from the largest international bodies in the world, and the assertion of statehood, is that the palestinians will move to expel the israeli citizens and other jews who have settled in the west bank. it seems to me that this alone would engender tactical engagement between israeli and arab/muslim forces, perhaps limited to arab paramilitary groups versus the i.d.f.
the longer and more serious consequence of palestinian "government" on the west bank (to state the concept is to utter a joke) is that other arab entities will seek to arm it w/ strategic military forces, perhaps seeking agreements for bases and the like.
one of the reasons that israel exists, paradoxically enough, is that it is so isolated in a strategic sense from ground attack in force. the syrians have to come down through limited approaches, and then have to be able to muscle the golan and sheba farms ever to mount tank and armor assault on israel. this they have never proven capable of doing. the egyptians have to come over the desert, and they have never had the ability to do that. and, the jordanians, have to marshal up on open ground and then press across the river into the west bank area.
were a military force able to use a "palestinian state" as a marshalling force for conventional armor and tank forces, staging in bases leased from "palestine," this would present a formidable strategic threat to israel, and probably would present a very legitimate threat to her destruction. just consider heavy artillery fire, let alone tanks and other armor, from the west bank directed into israel.
she would be presented with military assault the likes of which would probably be irresistible.
israel could not allow that sort of strategic risk to obtain.
she would have to simply preemptively strike an independent palestine to prevent that from happening.
and occupy.
and, here we are again.
another war. and another stalemate. and, other peace process.
this goes around in circles forever. this negotiation bullshit.
the only solution to this, is for israel to expel the arabs from israel proper, whether or not they are israeli citizens, and for israel to eject the "palestinians" from the west bank, and to assume a state of permanent hostilities between israel and her arab/islamic neighbors as the cost of existence.
there can be no peace, either with a palestine as a "unilaterally" established state, or with a palestine as a "negotiated state" the result of "peace process." either way spells out the same result, the same reaction from israel to preserve herself, and a return to this precise position, with israel policing the west bank to hold terrorism and political unrest to "acceptable levels."
/s/ john jay
…………………..
in short, what i saw in benjamin netanyahu’s mind was an endless cycle of international diplomacy “empowering” and “legitimizing” palestinian statehood only to force the israeli’s to invade and “re-occupy” “palestine” to protect against arab and islamic military adventurism in the form of repeated military forays into israel and against israeli positions.
it seemed to me, that in this statement, netanyahu was saying that the “peace process” if played out this way, by the unilateral assertion of statehood by palestine and recognized by international bodies was the functional equivalent of perpetual hostilities, and perpetual wars thrust upon israel by arab/islamic aggression.
and, it seemed to me, that in netanyahu’s mind this cycle of hostilities bore the heavy intellectual burden of inevitability, of a future doomed to debilitating warfare. and, this, no leader, no matter how resigned to “real politik,” would want to embrace as a scenario which could not be avoided.
(this is, by the way, my view of the reality of the situation. i believe that the price of israel’s existence is military preparedness, and a diplomatic posture that does not shun recourse to military force from time to time. to me, this is reality.)
some days later it occurred to me, that in all probability, and in demonstrable fact, benjamin netanyahu had reached this view a long time before it occurred to me. not surprisingly, perhaps to you, because you have thought it through to this conclusion yourself, given the total immersion of an israeli politician like netanyahu in this situation his entire life.
i took some smug satisfaction in my surmise. because i have not seen this “insight” into netanyahu’s thinking published or written about in other places, perhaps because i don’t read enough. nor, in spite of my gentle kidding above, have i heard from you, gentle readers, along these lines either.
and, several days later it occurred to me.
i had absolute confirmation in my understanding of netanyahu’s thought, in his own words, not more than 6 months previously, in a series of remarks given by netanyahu in a major address, and described in the washington post, no less, his support for a palestinian state premised upon arab agreement and adherence to certain very rigorous diplomatic and military conditions: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061400741.html . in an address given at bar-ilan university, tel aviv, israel on june 14, 2009 netanyahu proposed the following:
“the palestinian state would have to be demilitarized, with international guarantees that it remain so; it would have to cede control of its airspace to israel; and it could be created only if the palestinians recognize israel as the jewish homeland.” id, at washington post. [http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com/2009/06/full-text-of-binyamin-netanyahus-bar.html. full text of speech, courtesy sammy benoit at http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com.]
netanyahu’s conditions were described more fully by sammy benoit at yidwithlid with his usual clarity in a series of posts. in the following post, http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com/2009/06/meaning-of-bibis-speech-take-that-obama.html, sammy excerpted a portion of netanyahu’s speech fully demonstrating that netanyahu has a firm view toward the never ending cycle of islamic/arabic aggression towards israel, as a consequence of islam never having accepted the legitimacy of israel since statehood, or the presence of jews in their homeland prior to statehood:
....In order to bring an end to the conflict, we must give an honest and forthright answer to the question: What is the root of the conflict?
In his speech to the first Zionist Conference in Basel, the founder of the Zionist movement, Theodor Herzl, said about the Jewish national home, "This idea is so big that we must speak of it only in the simplest terms." Today, I will speak about the immense challenge of peace in the simplest words possible.
Even as we look toward the horizon, we must be firmly connected to reality, to the truth. And the simple truth is that the root of the conflict was, and remains, the refusal to recognize the right of the Jewish people to a state of their own, in their historic homeland.
In 1947, when the United Nations proposed the partition plan of a Jewish state and an Arab state, the entire Arab world rejected the resolution. The Jewish community, by contrast, welcomed it by dancing and rejoicing.
The Arabs rejected any Jewish state, in any borders.
Those who think that the continued enmity toward Israel is a product of our presence in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, is confusing cause and consequence.
The attacks against us began in the 1920s, escalated into a comprehensive attack in 1948 with the declaration of Israel's independence, continued with the fedayeen attacks in the 1950s, and climaxed in 1967, on the eve of the Six Day War, in an attempt to tighten a noose around the neck of the State of Israel.
All this occurred during the 50 years before a single Israeli soldier ever set foot in Judea and Samaria .
there are other aspects to netanyahu’s position, and perhaps on another day they warrant a fuller discussion. but the key features of his position are that a palestinian state must recognized the right of israel to exist, and to exist as the homeland of the jews, such recognition memorialized by signed agreement; that palestine be demilitarized, and kept demilitarized by international inspection, and that israel has the right to enter and occupy palestine as necessary to keep it demilitarized; and, that israel have control of the airspace over palestine.
in short, and in absolute confirmation of my view of/insight into benjamin netanyahu’s thinking on the matter, palestine will be allowed statehood by israel when and if palestine can be rendered a nullity as a strategic threat to israel.
it is obvious that netanyahu perceives an endless cycle of conflict (as i do) and war with palestine and islamic influences using palestine as a proxy state, if palestine is given the full panoply of state powers, privileges, rights and immunities, because she will use these attributes to arm herself, or to allow her armed neighbors access to her territories, and as such she would present quite fatal prospects of the arab prospects of conquest of israel, given israel’s resultant strategic exposures.
to netanyahu’s thought processes, a palestinian state has fatal consequences to israel, as arab/islamic strategic advantage would be overwhelming, and israel’s heretofore strategic havens rendered an absolute nullity. this, netanyahu will not allow to happen.
any “unilateral movement” toward this prospect on the part of islam using palestine as a strategic lever will trigger “unilateral reaction” by netanyahu’s israel, and that means nothing less than the military and diplomatic destruction of palestine as a state, and the beginning of another cycle of occupation of the west bank territories by israel.
netahyahu is not buying into this as an historical option.
netanyahu sees, and he has thought it through to this vision, the inevitable cycles of warfare and occupation stemming from genuine palestinian statehood.
this is where there is a divergence in the visions of john jay and benjamin netanyahu, if an obscure blogger from milton freewater, oregon may be permitted divergent thoughts from a brilliant man such as netanyahu.—netanyahu thinks the pit bull can be neutered in his aspirations, and defanged and declawed in his military capacities, … , and thereby rendered a total nullity by the imposition through negotiation and agreement of the conditions he has placed upon the “peace process.”
when i first read mr. netanyahu’s speech in june of this year, i thought that he was just blowing smoke up islam’s ass, to delay negotiation, because i believed that netanyahu had set out conditions to which no arab or islamic leader would ever agree, or could ever agree, without exposing himself to the rage of the arab public. i thought that he was, moreover, simply rebuffing b. insane obama’s earlier remarks about the peace process made in cairo, egypt: sort of tweaking the idiot's ear, as it were.
but i see now that netanyahu was ever so seriously proposing a solution that he believes is the only solution that will achieve peace. in netanyahu’s vision of permanent conflict arising from a the creation of a palestinian state fully fledged with the rights, powers and privileges of a genuine state, the only prospect is endless warfare, as islamic aggression after islamic aggression is beaten back and subdued; as occupation after occupation of palestine subsequent to war gives way to negotiated withdrawal of israeli troops under international pressure; and as islamic buildup of military force after islamic build up of military force gives way and leads inevitably to renewed war.
but, netanyahu sees in the institution of what we might call “limited statehood” for palestine, conferring upon it the right of self governance but absent military capacity, a solution that will at least assure a “limited peace,” in which palestinian violence is limited to an acceptable level of internecine terrorism and violence directed towards israel.
in short, netanyahu envisions the status quo assured by “limited statehood” for palestine.
i am not so sanguine about the nature of this peace, nor do i share netanyahu’s vision that “limited peace” is derivative of “limited” palestinian statehood. i do not see the situation as it exists presenting sustainable state hood and religious & ethical integrity for jews and israelis. it seems to me that benjamin netanyahu’s position that the israel “settlements” in the west bank would be maintained with a “limited” palestinian state, and that jerusalem would be an undivided capital, simply cannot obtain as any condition of peace, and that such issues will always remain a tension, and source of conflict and warfare between islamic/arab populations and the jews of israel.
no "vision" of “peace” can gloss over these fundamental divides.
as i said in correspondence to sammy benoit then, i believe now:
The Meaning Of Bibi's Speech--Take THAT...
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From: |
(jjatty@msn.com) |
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Sent: |
sun 6/14/09 8:23 PM |
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To: |
(yidwithlid) |
sammy, ____________:
i think bibi is safe for a little bit. not very likely the pali's will disarm, not very likely hamas will revise its charter, and not very likely p.l.a. "pres." abbas will ever recognize the right of the jewish state to even exist.
i liked the part of his speech where he said the pali's [e.g., palestinian "refugees"] are an arab problem and call for an arab solution, not a solution to be imposed upon israel or a responsibility to be borne by israel.
a good speech.
now, we have to turn to the reality of the thing. unless israel gets a grip on this arab demographic business, we will not be reading in coming years of israel's military conquest, but of her inundation under successive decades of arab birthrate and fecundity. time for israel to consider the "ejectment" question openly and honestly.
but, today was a very good start, a very good start indeed.
john jay
in my view, no “peace process” will ever “impose” peace upon the middle east, so long as israel exists. israel’s continued existence is a continued affront to islam, and arabs will always seek the military destruction of israel, and the banishment & annihilation of her citizens from middle east, or, their enforced dhimmitude if they are not killed and do not leave. but, the existence of israel is forever anathema to islam and to arabs.
ask mr. abbas, and ask the palestinian authority, and every other arab/islamic person who draws breath.
no, the cost of israeli existence is permanent military superiority, and preparedness to do battle to defend israel at the drop of the hat, any day of the week, at any hour.
ultimately, israel faces subjugation and destruction, or coming up face to face with the real issue defining the entire question of whether israel will flourish or perish, as the rose upon the frosts of late autumn.
will israel commit to the ejectment of arabs and islam from israel proper, and the west bank & gaza.
meir kahane was right. and, wouldn’t you know it, meir kahane remains such a force in the intellectual examination of this extremely complicated question, which remains an unsolvable quandary so long as his long reaching vision is not applied to it, that the united states emissary to the middle east, u.s. senator george mitchell has asked that no israeli observance of the anniversary of his death be performed in israel.
this alone is eloquent and telling testimony to the force of kahane’s argument, and confirmation of the fact that the arab & islamic presence in israel proper and the west bank remains the single most salient issue, the underlying reality, of the existence of israeli statehood.
meir kahane was right. and, no amount of denial can still his vision or his voice.
benjamin netanyahu has not come this far in his thinking that he and I think congruently on every point. but, here is the significance of how far he has come. he thinks like me, in all but the last intellectual and psychological steps, as he has publically confirmed his thinking.
he has only one very small step to take, to join company with kahane and jay, and to ensure the survival of israel. and, how far away is netanyahu from taking this step. in my view, there will be no intellectual or emotional impediment between netanyahu and my view in these matters, nothing preventing him from taking the last step to supporting the notion of ejectment of the arabs, upon the realization in benjamin netanyahu’s mind and intellect that “limited peace” through either the doctrine or the applied practice of “limited” palestinian statehood work towards israel’s perpetual existence and security.
in other words, benjamin netanyahu is a very, very short journey from the vision of meir kahane. he knows statehood for the palestinians, in any conventional sense means perpetual war. he has seized upon this notion of “limited statehood” as offering some chance toward peace. if and when benjamin netanyahu comes to the realization that it is all chimera, and ephemeral gauze that cannot obtain, then his fine & analytical mind will have no place to go in its quest for a security and peace for the israeli state.
he will then think entirely like me. and, in this instance, he will have the company of a great man, meir kahane, to guide him.